000 AXNT20 KNHC 252342 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...CORRECTED NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST THU DEC 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... STRONG HIGH PRES BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN WILL DRIVE INCREASING WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHICH WILL REACH GALE FORCE TONIGHT THROUGH FRI MORNING. SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM 10-12 FEET ACROSS THIS AREA. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT3/FZNT23 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS AFRICA. THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM 05N09W TO 05N26W TO 04N40W TO 07N49W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 24W-28W AND 37W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... HIGH PRESSURE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AFTER THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WITH THIS...A GENTLE TO MODERATE ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL SW FLOW IS BRINGING PLENTY OF MOISTURE TO THE GULF FROM THE EPAC AND W CARIBBEAN. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS N OF 25N AND W OF 90W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE NEXT COLD FRONT TO APPROACH THE TEXAS COAST BY SAT AND THEN SLOWLY MOVING INTO THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. THE LATEST SCATTEROMETER DATA ONCE AGAIN CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WIND SPEEDS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE FOR MORE INFORMATION. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN ALONG 22N81W TO 16N86W. GENTLE TO MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN BEHIND OF A COLD FRONT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS AFFECTING THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO AS DEPICTED BY THE SAN JUAN DOPPLER RADAR. GENTLE TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE WITH FAIR WEATHER DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO STALL FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REACH THE GREATER ANTILLES ON SUNDAY WITH A BAND OF MOISTURE EXTENDING ACROSS PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA. HISPANIOLA... A DRY AIR MASS CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING WEAK...ISOLATED PASSING SHOWERS. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BRING SOME INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND POSSIBLY ENHANCING CONVECTION BY SUNDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE E ACROSS THE SW PORTION OF THE BASIN...EXTENDING FROM 44N64W TO WESTERN CUBA NEAR 23N80W THEN S ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION REMAINS N OF 30N BETWEEN 55W-68W. A 1023 MB HIGH IS E OF THE FRONT CENTERED NEAR 32N59W AND EXTENDING A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. TO THE E...ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PRODUCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 21N BETWEEN 24W- 46W. THIS BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM 45N32W TO 19N42W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW PRES AND THE RIDGE TO THE W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N OF 28N BETWEEN 44W-53W. A 1037 MB SURFACE HIGH DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO WEAKEN AND STALL ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND CARIBBEAN WHILE THE FRONT ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE MOVING E WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA