000 AXNT20 KNHC 250537 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 9N13W AND CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 05N22W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 05N22W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N30W TO 06N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 5N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N- 5N BETWEEN 10W-21W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE GULF REGION FOLLOWED BY FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL BASED ON A RECENT SCATTEROMETER PASS. MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT OVER THE FAR SE GULF AND SOUTH FLORIDA. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY FROM THE SE CONUS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND OVER FLORIDA EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM CAPE CANAVERAL TO NEAR NAPLES. BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE ALSO NOTED OVER THE FLORIDA KEYS. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SOUTH FLORIDA EARLY THIS MORNING. AT UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF REGION FROM SE MEXICO TO THE SE CONUS IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN BY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. GENTLE TO MODERATE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES INTO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. PASSING SHOWERS ARE ALSO SEEN OVER PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MON NIGHT...OCCASIONALLY REACHING NEAR GALE FORCE NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN OVERNIGHT...EXTENDS FROM WESTERN CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS THIS MORNING...THEN STALL AND GRADUALLY DISSIPATE FROM FAR CENTRAL CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. AT UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS EASTERN CUBA COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ADVECTING MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. HISPANIOLA... A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 29N65W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN ATLANTIC COVERING THE NE CARIBBEAN. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALSO NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AND EXTENDS FROM 31N30W TO 20N40W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 24N BETWEEN 27W AND 40W. THE FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG LOW PRES LOCATED N OF AREA. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE TO THE W IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 40W AND 47W. FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 24N. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE REGION. THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL ENTER THE SW N ATLC DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT REACHES FROM NEAR 31N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA THU NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY WILL STALL AND LIFT NORTHWARD FRI AS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE BOUNDARY SHIFTS EASTWARD. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR