000 AXNT20 KNHC 242356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF WATERS FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. AS OF 1800 UTC...THE FRONT EXTENDS FROM FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO 25N86W TO THE N CENTRAL YUCATAN PENINSULA. A RECENT ASCAT PASS DATA AS WELL AS BUOY REPORTS SHOW GALE FORCE WINDS W OF THE FRONT S OF 23N...WITH FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ELSEWHERE W OF THE FRONT. SEAS ARE REPORTED TO BE IN THE 10-15 KT RANGE. SCATTEROMETER DATA ALSO SHOWS OBSERVATIONS OF FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF. THE GALE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE SHOW THE FRONT REACHING THE TAMPA BAY AREA TO THE NE YUCATAN PENINSULA EARLY TONIGHT...THEN FROM NEAR NAPLES TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA LATE TONIGHT...AND TO E THE GULF BY THURSDAY. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 06N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 06N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 04N30W TO 05N38W TO 04N48W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 140 NM N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 20W-30W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL TEXAS TO NORTHERN MEXICO IS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF REGION PRODUCING GALE FORCE WINDS AND ROUGH SEAS. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR MORE DETAILS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BANDS MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AFFECTING NW FLORIDA AND THE E GULF MAINLY E OF 89W. AT UPPER LEVELS...WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWED PLENTY OF MOISTURE STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GULF REGION FROM SE MEXICO TO THE SE CONUS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN BY SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH IS LOCATED ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN. A MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN INCLUDING THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT S OF 14N BETWEEN 70W-76W NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA AND THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. A GENTLE BREEZE IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE E CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 70W. A COLD FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN FLORIDA AREA IS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE WHOLE PENINSULA EVEN REACHING WESTERN CUBA AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 18N...W OF 80W. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS MAINLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BASIN...AS NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR IMAGERY OF THE PUERTO RICO AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE GULF REACHING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL AND GRADUALLY WEAKEN ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS BY FRIDAY. HISPANIOLA... A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ISLAND SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1032 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 47N52W EXTENDS A RIDGE ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WITH THIS...THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH PRESSURE AND THE LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING AN INCREASE IN WIND SPEEDS ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND W ATLANTIC. MODERATE S-SW WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS E OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND SE US COAST AS THE COLD FRONT OVER THE E GULF OF MEXICO APPROACHES. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS NOTED W OF 76W. TO THE E...A 988 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 39N40W AND EXTENDS ITS COLD FRONT FROM 43N37W TO 23N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT E OF THIS FRONT N OF 21N BETWEEN 25W-39W. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT GENERATED BY THIS LOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH DESCRIBED ABOVE IS PRODUCING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 30N BETWEEN 41W- 52W. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE E GULF OF MEXICO TO ENTER THE W ATLANTIC TONIGHT. THE FRONT WILL THEN STALL AND WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY REACHES THE FLORIDA STRAITS ON THURSDAY. FRESH TO LOCALLY STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA