000 AXNT20 KNHC 241754 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N88W TO 26N89W TO 19N95W. EXPECT NORTHWEST-TO- NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 10 FEET TO 17 FEET...TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT. NORTHWEST-TO- NORTH GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 8 FEET TO 11 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 22N TO THE EAST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 91W. WEST-TO- NORTHWEST GALE-FORCE WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS 9 FEET TO 13 FEET FROM 22N TO 26N TO THE WEST OF THE COLD FRONT TO 94W. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...AND THE OFFSHORE FORECAST...MIAOFFNT4/FZNT24 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N16W AND 6N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N19W TO 5N23W 4N29W 5N33W 5N43W AND 4N48W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 6N BETWEEN 25W AND 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 39W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 10N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE CENTRAL U.S.A. INTO TEXAS AND THE NORTHERN HALF OF MEXICO. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. GULF COAST STATES. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE EASTERNMOST PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N88W TO 26N89W TO 19N95W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 28N TO 31N BETWEEN 82W AND 85W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N84W ALONG THE FLORIDA/GEORGIA BORDER...TO 24N91W TO 17N100W IN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM WEST TEXAS/NORTHERN MEXICO INTO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 19N96W. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO...IN ABOUT 12 HOURS. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH..KCRH... KHHV...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK.........KCRH... KIT...AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE FROM HOUSTON TO IN TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...RAINSHOWERS AND THUNDER... AND PATCHES OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS ARE IN FLORIDA BETWEEN CROSS CITY AND THE LINE THAT RUNS FROM APALACHICOLA AND MERINO. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BETWEEN THE APALACHICOLA- TO-MERINO FLORIDA LINE AND THE BORDER OF ALABAMA AND MISSISSIPPI...AND FROM BROOKSVILLE FLORIDA TO SOREST AND TO FORT MYERS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA WATERS...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADE WIND FLOW...FROM 18N SOUTHWARD FROM 70W EASTWARD...FROM 13N TO 18N BETWEEN 70W AND 75W...FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 76W AND 84W...AND FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 76W WESTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.65 IN CURACAO...0.05 IN TRINIDAD... AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO 7N81W IN PANAMA...PASSING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHERN COSTA RICA... BEYOND 9N86W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 89W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE...IN TRADE WIND FLOW...IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS CROSSING HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS IN THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 27N65W...TO HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND OTHER LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN ANTI- CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER EVENTUALLY DEVELOPS ON TOP OF JAMAICA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS...AND IT WILL END UP ABOUT 310 NM TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OF THE POINT OF THE BAHAMAS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START NEAR 23N72W...AND IT WILL END UP BEING NEAR 24N79W AT 48 HOURS. EXPECT NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE TO THE NORTH OF 25N BETWEEN 60W AND 80W IN THE AREA OF A SURFACE RIDGE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 24/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES ARE...0.04 IN BERMUDA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE BEYOND 32N73W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 50W AND 80W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... TO 27N65W...TO HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 24N40W AND TO 12N38W. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH 32N33W TO 28N34W 25N36W AND 25N43W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 26N TO 32N BETWEEN 29W AND 31W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N TO 26N BETWEEN 28W AND 42W...AND ELSEWHERE FROM 28N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 34W AND 48W. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N12W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT