000 AXNT20 KNHC 240552 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 24 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING ACROSS THE NW PART OF THE GULF BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM SE LOUISIANA TO TAMPICO MEXICO. FRESH TO STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER DATA AHEAD OF THE FRONT DUE TO THE TIGHT PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND LOWER PRES ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL GULF. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE EAST AND REACH FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...FROM NEAR TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED EVENING...THEN SHIFT SE OF THE GULF BY THU MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. GALE FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL AFFECT THE WESTERN WATERS MAINLY W OF 94W BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH LATE WED. HIGH PRES WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 05N09W AND CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 03N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 03N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 05N52W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 12W AND 15W...AND N OF THE ITCZ AXIS BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF REGION FOLLOWED BY GALE FORCE WINDS. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES FOR DETAILS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS BANDS OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF STATES FROM SE LOUISIANA TO NORTHERN FLORIDA...INCLUDING THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF REGION AHEAD OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES CENTRAL TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF AND THE SE CONUS. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE COLD FRONT THAT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE GULF. BY FRI...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW GULF BY SAT NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO SUN NIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS PREVAIL ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA...AND IN THE GULF OF VENEZUELA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. FRESH TO STRONG SE WINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN...INCLUDING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE ATLANTIC... MORE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SUN NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED EVENING. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THROUGH FRI. FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A RIDGE WITH AXIS ACROSS HISPANIOLA COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN PRODUCING STRONG SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MOST OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND VENEZUELA. MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS ON INCREASE ACROSS GUATEMALA AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN AND WESTERN CUBA WHERE A SWLY FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS. HISPANIOLA... A VERY STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALOFT CONTINUES TO SUPPORT MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH LOW-TOPPED TRADE WIND SHOWERS MOVING MAINLY ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED NEAR 28N64W EXTENDS A RIDGE SE TO NEAR 20N46W. ANOTHER RIDGE STRETCHES FROM THE SAME SYSTEM TO THE SW ACROSS THE BAHAMAS REACHING FLORIDA AND EAST AND CENTRAL CUBA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL INCREASE BETWEEN THE HIGH PRES AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. AS A RESULT...EXPECT INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TODAY...PARTICULARLY BETWEEN THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND 77W. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH EASTERLY WINDS ARE NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE... WITH MAINLY FRESH WINDS BETWEEN HISPANIOLA AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE ALSO NOTED UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE RIDGE. FARTHER EAST...A COLD FRONT IS ANALYZED AND EXTENDS FROM 31N34W TO 25N34W. THIS FRONT IS GENERATING SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY N OF 25N BETWEEN 28W AND 35W. PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THE FRONT AND THE RIDGE W OF THE FRONT IS RESULTING IN AN AREA OF FRESH NORTHERLY WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...ESPECIALLY N OF 27N BETWEEN 44W AND 51W. A RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF ATLANTIC FORECAST AREA. THE CURRENT MID TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE STREAMING NE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA REACHES THE SW N ATLC...AND IS RIDING ON THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE CENTRAL AND SE BAHAMAS. ALOFT...A RIDGE/TROUGH/RIDGE PATTERN IS NOTED ACROSS THE REGION. LOOKING AHEAD...THE STRONG COLD FRONT THAT IS MOVING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO WILL MOVE INTO THE SW N ATLC WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL WEAKEN AS IT QUICKLY REACHES FROM 31N70W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS BY THU. FRESH TO STRONG NW WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WED NIGHT AND THU. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ GR