000 AXNT20 KNHC 231115 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO TUE EVENING THROUGH WED EVENING. A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL TEXAS WILL APPROACH THE NW GULF TODAY...MOVING INTO THE TEXAS AND WESTERN LOUISIANA COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL RAPIDLY INCREASE TO GALE FORCE BEHIND THE FRONT MAINLY W OF 94W. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO REACH FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO NEAR TAMPICO MEXICO THIS EVENING...FROM MOBILE BAY TO THE CENTRAL BAY OF CAMPECHE WED MORNING...FROM TAMPA BAY TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WED EVENING...PUSHING SE OF THE GULF BY THU MORNING WHEN IT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA. A BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE GULF REGION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N11W AND CONTINUES OVER THE E ATLC WATERS TO NEAR 04N19W. THE ITCZ BEGINS NEAR 04N19W AND CONTINUES ALONG 2.5N30W TO 02N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS NOTED FROM 3N-5N BETWEEN 16W AND 18W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MODERATE TO FRESH SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE NOTED PER SCATTEROMETER AND SURFACE DATA ACROSS THE GULF REGION BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE THAT DOMINATES THE EASTERN GULF AND LOWER PRESSURE OVER THE WESTERN GULF AND TEXAS. THIS SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL INTENSIFY...AS PRES GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA...AND SPREAD OVER THE ENTIRE GULF TODAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO ENTER THE NW GULF THIS AFTERNOON. SEE SPECIAL FEATURE FOR DETAILS. MOSAIC DOPPLER RADAR FROM THE SE U.S. SHOWS INCREASING SHOWERS AND TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF FROM THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...AND THEN ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA. THIS CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER FLORIDA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT. A FEW STRONG TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE GULF COAST TODAY. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...SW FLOW DOMINATES THE ENTIRE GULF WATERS AHEAD OF A LONG-WAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSES WESTERN TEXAS AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THESE WINDS ARE TRANSPORTING ABUNDANT MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FLORIDA INTO THE WESTERN ATLC. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT. CARIBBEAN SEA... FRESH TO STRONG TRADEWINDS ARE BLOWING ACROSS THE EAST AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OF 25-30 KT NEAR THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SCATTEROMETER PASSES CONFIRMED THE PRESENCE OF THESE WINDS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG E TO SE WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. SHALLOW MOISTURE EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WIND FLOW CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION PRODUCING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED PASSING SHOWERS. NOW...THEY ARE MORE CONCENTRATED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. PATCHES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM THE ATLANTIC. SOME OF THEM ARE ALSO REACHING THE UK/US VIRGIN ISLANDS. SHOWERS CARRIED BY THE WINDS ARE ALSO AFFECTING THE ISLANDS NEAR THE COAST OF VENEZUELA AND THE ABC ISLANDS. FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH SAT NIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WED NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM WESTERN CUBA TO CENTRAL HONDURAS THU MORNING WHERE IT WILL