000 AXNT20 KNHC 201117 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 28N45W IS GENERATING GALE FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC PARTICULARLY WITHIN 180 NM E SEMICIRCLE OF THE LOW CENTER. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING SEAS UP TO 15 FT IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST WINDS. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE JUST N OF THE AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. AS A RESULT...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE COAST OF AFRICA NEAR 07N12W TO 06N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N33W TO 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N E OF 34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... UPPER-LEVEL SW TO W FLOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE BASIN ADVECTING MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ IN THE EPAC TO THE GULF WATERS. A 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN NEAR 28N93W FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SW TO NE MEXICO. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS EASTWARD FROM THE SAME LOW ALONG 29N88W TO 29N84W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS OBSERVED BEHIND THE FRONTS AFFECTING THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS WITH A N MODERATE BREEZE. FAIR WEATHER AND A SLIGHT BREEZE PREVAILS OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN AS A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE COVERING THE EASTERN U.S. EXTENDS S TO THE GULF. A SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE W CARIBBEAN IS ENHANCING CONVECTION AFFECTING THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE LOW TO MOVE E-NE ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE WEAKENING...AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND SW TO EASTERN-CENTRAL MEXICO COASTAL WATERS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA EXTENDING FROM 23N87W TO 18N88W. DEEP LAYER MOISTURE IN THE FAR WESTERN BASIN MAINLY W OF 82W IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION N OF 20N W OF 83W. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE SE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING ISOLATED CONVECTION AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND PUERTO RICO. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTED BY DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT. A SLIGHT TO GENTLE BREEZE PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE TROUGH TO CONTINUE ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE NW BASIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE ISLAND AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH CONTINUES SUPPORTING SUBSIDENCE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N58W TO 28N63W. TO THE E...A 1011 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 28N45W. ITS COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW TO 22N40W. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS N FROM THE LOW TO THE N ATLANTIC. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION PREVAILS N OF 22N BETWEEN 37W-47W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OBSERVED E OF THIS LOW CENTER. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURE SECTION ABOVE. SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO MOVE NW N OF THE AREA OF DISCUSSION. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA