000
AXNT20 KNHC 181704
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1700 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N10W AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N14W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS AT 05N14W AND CONTINUES TO 05N24W TO 04N35W TO 05N45W TO 
THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 03N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS FROM 02N TO 06N BETWEEN 22W AND 51W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A WARM FRONT CROSSES INTO THE GULF FROM THE TX COAST NEAR 29N95W 
AND CONTINUES TO 28N91W TO 26N87W. THE FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO 
A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES FROM 26N87W TO 26N81W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE WARM 
FRONT. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. S 
WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS E OF 90W. S TO SE WINDS 
OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE S OF THE FRONTS W OF 90W. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 
15 KT ARE N OF THE WARM FRONT. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5 KT ARE N 
OF THE STATIONARY FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS A LOW OVER S 
TEXAS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE N GULF...WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING 
SW OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE WESTERN BASIN AND A WARM/STATIONARY 
FRONT E OF THE LOW IN THE NE BASIN. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 20N83W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 15N TO 18N BETWEEN 76W TO 85W. 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF 13N WITHIN 
75 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALSO N OF THE 
TROUGH AXIS INCLUDING THE CAYMAN ISLANDS AND ISLA DE PINOS. A 
DISSIPATING COLD FRONT IS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM THE 
LEEWARD ISLANDS TO 15N72W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 
EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS 
PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES 
INCLUDING E CUBA...HISPANIOLA...AND PUERTO RICO. OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT WEST 
AS THE TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE 
YUCATAN PENINSULA. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE IN 
MOIST NE FLOW ACROSS THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND 
SURROUNDING WATERS.  
                             
HISPANIOLA...                   

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF 
THE ISLAND UNDER MOIST NE LOW LEVEL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL 
BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY AS AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE 
CONTINUES TO MOVE OVER THE ISLAND.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 60W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT 
EXTENDS ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC TO 31N65W TO 28N70W TO 26N77W 
WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT AND CONTINUES ACROSS 
S FLORIDA NEAR 26N81W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE 
COLD FRONT. FARTHER EAST...A 1015 MB AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS 
CENTERED NEAR 24N47W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS S OF THE LOW TO 
19N47W AND THEN SW TO THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 16N62W. A 
STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS NE OF THE LOW TO 31N42W AND THEN OVER 
THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF 
THE COLD FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N TO 31N 
BETWEEN 38W AND 48W. A 1036 MB AREA OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
LOCATED E OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE EASTERN ATLANTIC. OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS THE LOW OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WILL MOVE NW 
WHILE THE FRONTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW DISSIPATE. CONVECTION 
WILL CONTINUE IN THE VICINITY OF THE LOW. A COLD FRONT WILL EXIT 
THE SE CONUS AND WILL ENTER THE W ATLANTIC WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$

LATTO