000 AXNT20 KNHC 171125 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 08N13W AND CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 05N21W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 05N21W AND CONTINUES TO 05N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-06N BETWEEN 16W-39W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AT 28N83W TO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 26N90W TO N MEXICO NEAR 25N97W. NO CONVECTION IS RELATED TO THESE BOUNDARIES. 10-15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS PREVAIL BEHIND THE COLD FRONT MAINLY E OF 90W WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLY WINDS ARE S OF THE FRONT AND W OF 90W. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING S ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA REACHING SOUTH FLORIDA WHILE ENHANCING CONVECTION. CARIBBEAN SEA... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS THE BASIN FROM 17N62W TO 16N67W. FROM THIS LAST POINT THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY TO 17N75W. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 17N75W TO 10N82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THE SHEAR LINE FROM 10N-16N BETWEEN 79W-83W WHILE ISOLATED CONVECTION IS ALONG THE STATIONARY FRONT S OF HISPANIOLA. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-15 KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...RIDGING IS PREVAILING OVER THE CARIBBEAN PRODUCING SW TO W FLOW. STRONG SUBSIDENCE CONTINUES OVER MOST OF THE BASIN EXCEPT OVER THE FRONTS AND SHEARLINE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO WEAKEN AND THE SHEARLINE WILL PERSIST ENHANCING CONVECTION. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE ISLAND KEEPING THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF HAITI WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THESE CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS LOCATED NEAR 40N72W WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE 40N72W TO 29N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT N OF 34N BETWEEN 66W-73W. A PAIR OF SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERS ARE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS NEAR 49W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE N ATLANTIC TO 30N43W TO 22N50W TO 17N61W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT SUPPORTED BY UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE MAINLY N OF 23N BETWEEN 37W-44W. A 1037 MB HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC CENTERED NEAR 39N22W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA