000 AXNT20 KNHC 161706 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 06N11W AND CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 06N16W AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N30W TO 4N48W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 8N BETWEEN 15W AND 33W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N TO 7N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THAT EXTENDS S TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR PENSACOLA AT 30N87W TO 28N91W TO THE TX COAST NEAR 26N97W. NW WINDS AROUND 20 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM SE OF THE COLD FRONT. A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AXIS EXTENDS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA AND ACROSS THE GULF SE OF THE COLD FRONT. THIS IS SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AS WELL AS VARIABLE WINDS MAINLY UNDER 10 KT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL GULF WITH SHOWERS TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THE FRONT WILL THEN BECOME STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PERSISTENT SHEAR LINE CONTINUES FROM HAITI AND THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 18N75W TO JAMAICA TO 15N81W TO 10N83W. NW WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE NW OF THE SHEAR LINE. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT ARE IMMEDIATELY SE OF THE SHEAR LINE. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR LINE AXIS. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N TO 14N BETWEEN 76W AND 80W. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC THAT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...TO PUERTO RICO...AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN...AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BASIN AWAY FROM THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS A SURFACE TROUGH IS EXPECTED WITH CONVECTION...WHERE THE SHEAR LINE CURRENTLY EXISTS. THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY THURSDAY. HISPANIOLA... A SHEAR LINE OVER HAITI AND A STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. ALTHOUGH THESE FEATURES ARE FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...REMNANT MOISTURE OVER HISPANIOLA WILL SUPPORT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH ALONG 54W IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A PAIR OF COLD FRONTS FROM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS OVER THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC. THE WESTERNMOST COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC 31N48W TO 26N56W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. THE SECOND COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE N CENTRAL ATLANTIC TO 31N44W TO 25N49W TO 20N57W. THE COLD FRONT THEN TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT NEAR 20N57W WHERE IT CONTINUES TO NEAR 18N63W BEFORE PASSING OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 41W AND 47W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTS S OF 24N. A 1040MB AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED JUST NE OF THE AZORES DOMINATES THE E ATLANTIC. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE WHILE THE COLD FRONTS MERGE AND CONTINUE EAST TO NEAR 30N43W TO 22N48W WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO