000
AXNT20 KNHC 160535
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
105 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0530 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N13W AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N16W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N26W TO 04N38W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH 
AMERICA AT 02N50W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-07N 
BETWEEN 19W-30W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 
29N77W AND EXTENDING W ACROSS THE GULF WATERS. 10-15 KT 
ANTICYCLONIC WINDS ARE NOTED OVER THE GULF WITH FAIR WEATHER. A 
1015 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS NEAR 27N98W 
WITH A FRONTAL SYSTEM CONNECTED TO IT AND EXTENDING N ACROSS 
CENTRAL US. PRE-FRONTAL ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF 
LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW IS PREVAILING 
ACROSS THE GULF WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS FOR THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ACROSS TEXAS TO MOVE E REACHING THE 
FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE ATLANTIC ACROSS 
PUERTO RICO NEAR 18N66W TO SOUTHERN HISPANIOLA NEAR 19N74W. A 
SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM THIS LAST POINT TO 16N80W TO 10N82W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 100 NM FROM 
THESE BOUNDARIES AFFECTING PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...JAMAICA 
AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE OVER THE W 
CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10 KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF 
THE SHEARLINE. AT UPPER LEVELS...ZONAL FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE 
BASIN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW PORTION. EXPECT 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO MOVE E ACROSS THE 
ATLANTIC NEAR 20N55W WITH A SHEARLINE MOVING ACROSS PUERTO 
RICO...HISPANIOLA...AND THE SW CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION.
                             
HISPANIOLA...                   

THE TAIL END OF A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE ISLAND WITH SCATTERED 
SHOWERS. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS FRONT TO 
TRANSITION INTO A SHEARLINE ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
ISLAND.
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

A 1021 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED NEAR 29N77W. SURFACE RIDGING 
AND FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS OVER NW ATLANTIC. AN UPPER-LEVEL 
TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 58W IS SUPPORTING A FRONTAL SYSTEM THAT 
BEGINS AS A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN TO 18N63W 
TO 23N54W TO 30N50W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES FROM THIS LAST 
POINT TO 44N45W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS E OF THIS 
FRONTAL SYSTEM N OF 21N...BETWEEN 42W-51W. TO THE E...A LARGE 
1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR 40N26W WITH FAIR WEATHER. 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE 
MOVING E ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
ERA