000
AXNT20 KNHC 151123
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION 
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 
705 AM EST MON DEC 15 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1115 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                

THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 10N14W AND 
CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 09N17W. THE ITCZ 
BEGINS FROM THAT POINT TO 05N29W TO 02N46W. ISOLATED LIGHT 
CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-06N BETWEEN 26W-29W. 
 
...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO... 

A 1021 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER EASTERN U.S. NEAR 39N83W. 
SURFACE RIDGING EXTENDS S COVERING THE WHOLE BASIN. UPPER-LEVEL 
RIDGING IS SUPPORTING THIS SURFACE FEATURE. WITH THESE...FAIR 
WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE GULF WATERS WITH ANTICYCLONIC WINDS 
OF 10-15 KT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR A COLD FRONT TO 
APPROACH THE NW PORTION OF THE BASIN ENHANCING CONVECTION. 

CARIBBEAN SEA...   

A SHEARLINE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS N OF PANAMA NEAR 10N81W TO 
18N77W TO THE S COAST OF HAITI NEAR 18N72W. 15-20 KT NORTHERLY 
WINDS PREVAIL OVER THE W CARIBBEAN W OF THE SHEARLINE WHILE 5-10 
KT EASTERLIES ARE E OF THE SHEARLINE. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE 
OBSERVED ALONG THE SHEARLINE. A 1009 MB LOW IS NW OF THE COAST 
OF COLOMBIA CENTERED NEAR 12N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 
100 NM OF THE CENTER. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE SEEN ON RADAR OVER 
PUERTO RICO GENERATED ALONG A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM 
SOUTHERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO 
NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE ATLANTIC. THE REMAINDER OF 
THE BASIN CONTINUES UNDER A FAIR WEATHER REGIME. EXPECT LITTLE 
CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 
                             
HISPANIOLA...                   

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
...ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE 
ATLANTIC. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS FRONTAL 
BOUNDARY AFFECTING THE ADJACENT WATERS WHILE THE MAINLAND 
CONTINUES WITH FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT CONVECTION TO DEVELOP WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS ACROSS THE ISLAND AS THE FRONT CONTINUES 
MOVING E.  

ATLANTIC OCEAN...   

AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE S COAST OF DOMINICAN REPUBLIC 
ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE TO NORTHERN PUERTO RICO THEN INTO THE 
ATLANTIC FROM 17N70W TO 24N58W TO 39N53W TO 49N56W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 200 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. 
TO THE E...AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 34W-38W. A 1037 MB HIGH CENTERED 
NEAR 39N28W IS PREVAILING ACROSS THE E ATLANTIC WITH FAIR 
WEATHER. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO 
CONTINUE TO MOVE E ENHANCING CONVECTION MOSTLY E OF THE BOUNDARY 
N OF 22N. 
 
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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ERA