000 AXNT20 KNHC 132346 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SAT DEC 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH CROSSES THE AFRICAN COAST NEAR 07N12W AND CONTINUES OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC TO NEAR 06N15W. THE ITCZ BEGINS AT 06N15W AND CONTINUES ALONG 08N24W TO 06N34W TO 6N46W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 180 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND ITCZ AXES ACROSS THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. WITH THIS...AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILS ACROSS THE WHOLE BASIN OF 05-10 KT. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR A DISTURBANCE TO MOVE ACROSS THE PLAINS ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE NW GULF. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1027 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE SE CONUS AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE BASIN W OF 77W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 19N78W TO 12N82W. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL DIFFLUENCE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION S OF 17N BETWEEN 75W-83W. A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS E OF 76W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. 15 TO 20 KT TRADE WINDS DOMINATE THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH E CUBA AND BECOME STATIONARY ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER THE ISLAND AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. HISPANIOLA... A NEARLY STATIONARY SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE W ATLANTIC INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS. THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED TO THIS FEATURE IS REMAINING N OF THE ISLAND...KEEPING THE AREA CONVECTION FREE. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR A COLD FRONT TO MOVE S ACROSS THE BAHAMAS APPROACHING THE N CARIBBEAN. WITH THIS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS HISPANIOLA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WITH AXIS ALONG 67W SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC THAT EXTENDS FROM 49N61W TO 42N58W TO 30N62W TO 24N79W. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 27N62W TO 21N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 24N-47N BETWEEN 51W-62W. THE REMNANTS OF A SURFACE LOW TRANSITIONED INTO A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 24N51W TO 21N48W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS PRESENT ALONG THIS BOUNDARY. TO THE E...ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS PRESENT EXTENDING FROM 27N37W TO 19N37W. THIS TROUGH IS SUPPORTED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR 25N38W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 17N-31N BETWEEN 30W-39W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM 35N42W TO 28N20W TO 38N07W. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 25-30 KT IS PRESENT BEHIND THIS FRONT. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT OVER THE W ATLANTIC TO MOVE E TO NEAR 31N60W TO 24N70W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE AREA. THE PORTION OF THE FRONT OVER THE BAHAMAS WILL BECOME STATIONARY. STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE N OF THE FRONT IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA