000 AXNT20 KNHC 131203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE PRIME MERIDIAN NEAR 5N... TO 4N10W AND 4N16W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N16W TO 5N25W 4N36W AND 2N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N SOUTHWARD FROM 22N EASTWARD...AND FROM 2N TO 7N BETWEEN 44W AND 48W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 60W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...AND INTO TEXAS...AND INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...ACROSS SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KXIH... KVAF...KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KGBK...KVQT...KGHB...KGRY...KATP... KIPN...KIKT...AND KVOA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. HARLINGEN WAS REPORTING VISIBILITIES FROM 1 TO 3 MILES AND FOG FROM 13/1118 UTC AND 13/1137 UTC. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA AND SURROUNDING COMMUNITIES... AND 2 MILES AND FOG IN BEAUMONT TEXAS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...TO 14N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA CHANGES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 80W WESTWARD...TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N75W IN COLOMBIA...TO A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS IN COSTA RICA NEAR 10N85W...AND BEYOND INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND NICARAGUA. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 12N TO 17N BETWEEN 77W AND NICARAGUA AND HONDURAS. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...TO 14N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT...AND A TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A./GULF COASTAL STATES...INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT JUST HAS PASSED THROUGH BERMUDA. THE FRONT IS JUST TO THE EAST OF BERMUDA...PASSING THROUGH 32N64W TO 29N70W AND 28N80W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N67W 21N71W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N76W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 28N TO 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 60W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N56W 27N60W 25N70W...TO 22N82W IN WESTERN CUBA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 25N39W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N32W 17N36W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N38W 26N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N39W 19N35W 23N34W 26N33W...AND FROM 21N TO 23N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N TO 32N BETWEEN 33W AND 43W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 38N15W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...THROUGH 32N19W...TO 32N30W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG 32N/33N BETWEEN 20W AND 30W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N17W 27N21W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N10W TO 27N20W 28N30W...AND TO 32N40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT