000 AXNT20 KNHC 130559 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SAT DEC 13 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ STARTS NEAR THE COAST OF LIBERIA NEAR 6N11W...TO 5N20W 6N33W 5N44W...AND TO THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN BRAZIL NEAR 4N51W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 3N TO 4N BETWEEN 15W AND 19W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 11N FROM 53W EASTWARD. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA INTO ARKANSAS AND LOUISIANA...AND INTO TEXAS...AND COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...ACROSS SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI 1025 HIGH PRESSURE CENTER...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KVAF... KEMK...KHQI...KGUL...KGHB...AND KATP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES RANGING FROM 2 TO 4 MILES AND FOG AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IN BEAUMONT/PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...TO 14N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE WIND FLOW ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA CHANGES FROM SOUTHWESTERLY FROM 80W WESTWARD...TO WESTERLY AND NORTHWESTERLY ELSEWHERE. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...FROM THE WINDWARD PASSAGE EASTWARD. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14 IN BERMUDA...AND 0.04 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 7N85W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. BROAD SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IN THE ISOBARIC ANALYSIS EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM THE BORDER WITH ECUADOR TO THE BORDER WITH PANAMA BETWEEN 75W AND THE COASTLINE...FROM THE PANAMA COAST TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 81W...FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 82W AND 84W ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN COSTA RICA AND SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 13N82W...AND FROM 15N TO 17N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY-TO-NORTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NORTHERN COLOMBIA...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NICARAGUA...BEYOND SOUTHWESTERN GUATEMALA...TO 14N101W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA...WITH LARGE-SCALE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW THAT WILL BE CENTERED IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. HISPANIOLA WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE OF A RIDGE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF IT...AND A TROUGH THAT WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF IT. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N70W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 30N79W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE FLORIDA BIG BEND...ACROSS SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA AND ARKANSAS... INTO NORTHEASTERN TEXAS. A COLD FRONT IS ABOUT 60 NM TO THE WEST OF BERMUDA...PASSING THROUGH 32N66W TO 30N70W AND 28N80W. THE 24- HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 13/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.14. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 27N BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 56W AND 62W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W 29N62W 27N70W...TO 26N81W IN FLORIDA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N67W 21N71W...TO SOUTHEASTERN CUBA NEAR 21N75W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 26N40W. CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N TO 32N BETWEEN 26W AND 50W. A 1014 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 22N46W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 29N20W 24N22W. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 23N32W 17N36W. A THIRD SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 30N38W 26N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 18N TO 24N BETWEEN 32W AND 36W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA THAT IS FROM 13N TO 28N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 32W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 21N TO 24N BETWEEN 44W AND 46W...AND FROM 25N TO 32N BETWEEN 32W AND 42W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT