000 AXNT20 KNHC 122337 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST FRI DEC 12 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2330 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE ITCZ BEGINS AT THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA NEAR 6N10W AND CONTINUES WESTWARD TO 6N33W TO 4N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION EXISTS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BETWEEN 4N-9N. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER SE US IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE BASIN. WITH THIS...FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF AROUND 10-15 KT SUPPORTING COLD AIR ADVECTION. AT UPPER- LEVELS...STRONG WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES AS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ARE OBSERVED OVER THE GULF...ADVECTING MOISTURE AND HIGH CLOUDS BUT NOT SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION. LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE HIGH REMAINS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1030 MB HIGH LOCATED ACROSS SE US IS EXTENDING ACROSS THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN MAINLY W OF 81W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. NORTHERLY FLOW OF 5-10 KT PREVAILS W OF 78W ALLOWING FOR COLD AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THIS AREA. TO THE S...A 1009 MB LOW IS OVER PANAMA NEAR 9N79W. THIS LOW PAIRED WITH THE PROXIMITY OF THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 78W-83W. TO THE E...A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. AT UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN COLOMBIA AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS FOR THE COOL AIR ADVECTION TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE S CARIBBEAN AFFECTING CENTRAL AMERICA. THE DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E PORTIONS OF THE BASIN. HISPANIOLA... A STATIONARY TROUGH...THE REMNANTS OF A COLD FRONT...CONTINUES NORTH OF THE ISLAND. DESPITE THIS...NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION IS OBSERVED DUE TO A DRY AND STABLE AIRMASS THAT PREVAILS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND E CARIBBEAN. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 45N66W. THIS FRONT IS FROM 45N66W TO 30N73W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT FROM 27N-46N BETWEEN 58W-72W. TO THE S...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 24N66W TO 21N76W. A WEAK 1014 MB SURFACE LOW IS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC WITH CENTER NEAR 22N45W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N38W TO 26N40W. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS FROM 21N32W TO 16N34W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN ATLANTIC FROM 10N-28N BETWEEN 17W-29W ENHANCED BY A SURFACE TROUGH LOCATED FROM 30N20W TO 23N23W. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE NW ATLANTIC ENHANCING CONVECTION. THE SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE SW WHILE DISSIPATING. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA