000
AXNT20 KNHC 112333
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST THU DEC 11 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 07N12W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
TO 04N30W TO 04N44W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 01N50W. 
WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-6N BETWEEN 12W-
15W...AND FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 20W-45W.  

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                         

SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. 
MOSTLY 10-15 KT WINDS ARE NOTED THROUGHOUT THE GULF. COLD AIR 
ADVECTION REMAINS MOSTLY OVER THE E GULF E OF 90W. BROKEN LOW 
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ALSO REMAINS OVER THE E GULF. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE GULF. A PLUME OF 
SCATTERED HIGH CLOUDS COVERS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF MOVING 
E. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE GULF TO BE MOSTLY VOID 
OF CONVECTION. EXPECT HOWEVER FOR SHOWERS TO BE OVER THE 
WESTERN BAY OF CAMPECHE W OF 95W. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...   

AS OF 2100 UTC...THE TAIL END OF A FRONT S OF THE WINDWARD 
PASSAGE HAS NOW DISSIPATED. 15 KT NORTHERLY WINDS REMAIN OVER 
THE NW CARIBBEAN WITH COLD AIR ADVECTION. THE REMAINDER OF THE 
CARIBBEAN HAS 10-20 KT TRADEWINDS WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE 
COAST OF N COLOMBIA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN 
OFF THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 
FROM 10N-14N BETWEEN 76W-82W. ELSEWHERE...OVERCAST LOW CLOUDS 
WITH DRIZZLE AND RAIN ARE REPORTED OVER PORTIONS OF N HONDURAS 
AND GUATEMALA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER 
THE CARIBBEAN WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE EXCEPT OVER THE SW 
CARIBBEAN. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

HISPANIOLA...                                                   

A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS JUST N OF HISPANIOLA. NO 
PRECIPITATION IS REPORTED. EXPECT GRADUAL CLEARING OF CLOUDS 
OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A LESSER POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.  
 
ATLANTIC OCEAN...    

AS OF 2100 UTC...A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE W ATLANTIC FROM 
30N58W TO 26N62W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 
22N68W TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT 20N74W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
E OF THE STATIONARY FRONT N OF 27N BETWEEN 55W-58W. BROKEN LOW 
LEVEL STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OVER THE W ATLANTIC W OF 70W TO 
FLORIDA. A 1015 MB LOW IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 26N41W. 
A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE LOW TO 20N37W. OF NOTE IN 
THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 31N33W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 28N-30N BETWEEN 32W-34W. 
UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS ALSO E OF THE LOW PRODUCING SCATTERED 
TO THE CANARY ISLANDS. A TROPICAL JET IS ALSO OVER THE E 
ATLANTIC PRODUCING BROKEN TO OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS FROM 10N-25N 
BETWEEN 15W-35W. EXPECT IN 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE S 
OF 30N. ALSO EXPECT THE SURFACE LOW AND THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO 
WEAKEN AND FILL.  

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

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FORMOSA