000 AXNT20 KNHC 101118 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 10 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 06N11W TO 05N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO 06N40W TO 05N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 04N-11N BETWEEN 17W-40W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGING DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN...THUS SUPPORTING A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER SE TEXAS. THIS OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM S OKLAHOMA TO SE LOUISIANA TO NE GULF WATERS NEAR 29N84W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT IS ACROSS THE REGION. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE SW N ATLC INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN ALONG 20N78W TO THE NORTHERN COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N88W. THE FRONT IS BEING SUPPORTED BY AN ELONGATED MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS AND THE FAR W ATLC WITH BASE EXTENDING INTO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. TROUGHING ALOFT AS WELL AS A PATCH OF SHALLOW MOISTURE AROUND THE TAIL OF THE FRONT ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 20N W OF 80W. LINGERING MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A FORMER SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED/ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER PORTIONS OF JAMAICA...HAITI... WESTERN DOMINICAN AND THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SIMILAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL IN THIS ZONE THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EASTWARD BEFORE STALLING OVER EASTERN CUBA. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS IS OBSERVED S OF 14N BETWEEN 74W-77W. MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG WITH A MID-LEVEL DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT OVER THE NE BASIN ENHANCE LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND ADJACENT WATERS. OTHERWISE...AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. TRADES OF 10-15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INCREASING TO 20 KT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA. SURFACE RIDGING ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SURFACE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ALONG THE WINDWARD PASSAGE CONTINUES TO ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE SW-W HISPANIOLA ADJACENT WATERS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER HAITI AND WESTERN DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. SHOWER ACTIVITY OVER LAND AND COASTAL WATERS WILL INCREASE FOR THIS REGION THROUGH THU WHEN A COLD FRONT STALLS OVER EASTERN CUBA BEFORE DISSIPATING. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS OVER THE NW ATLC FROM WHICH A COLD FRONT EXTENDS INTO THE SW N ATLC ALONG 30N70W TO N-NE CUBA NEAR 21N77W SW TO NW HONDURAS. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 75 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT N OF 23N. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH IS ALONG 30N66W TO 22N69W TO 18N76W WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS WITHIN 200 NM E OF ITS AXIS N OF 27N. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED FROM 30N50W TO 24N53W TO 18N54W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 100 NM E OF ITS AXIS. OVER THE EASTERN BASIN...A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A 1009 MB LOW OVER THE EASTERN ATLC NEAR 26N30W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW CENTER ALONG 21N28W SW TO 17N32W WHERE IT STARTS TO DISSIPATE. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM ARE FROM 23N-32N BETWEEN 20W- 34W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ATLC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR