000 AXNT20 KNHC 092347 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1009 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 25N31W WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE LOW TO 22N27W TO 13N38W TO 21N51W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND A HIGH PRESSURE N OF THE AZORES IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 25N-31N BETWEEN 26W-32W AND ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM 23N- 32N BETWEEN 17W-25W. METEO FRANCE FORECASTS CONTINUE SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA OF METEOR THROUGH TONIGHT. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N15W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N28W TO 6N36W TO 8N43W TO 6N48W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-13N BETWEEN 17W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS ACROSS EASTERN US SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 21N90W. AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED ACROSS THE E PACIFIC AND EXTENDING TO MEXICO AND THE WESTERN GULF. A SURFACE 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL US EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER AND ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 15-20 KT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE BASIN SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N78W...ACROSS WESTERN CUBA NEAR 22N84W TO 21N90W. AN UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE OVER SOUTH AMERICA EXTENDS ACROSS THE BASIN. 10-15 KT TRADE WINDS ARE OBSERVED ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN MAINLY E OF 76W WHILE NORTHERLY FLOW OF 15-20 KT ARE W OF 76W. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN. EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO CONTINUE MOVING E ACROSS THE W CARIBBEAN ENHANCING CONVECTION OVER CUBA...JAMAICA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS. HISPANIOLA... UPPER LEVEL RIDGING PREVAILS OVER THE ISLAND AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS SUPPORTS A STABLE ENVIRONMENT. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND FROM THE NW WHICH WILL INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE EASTERN US SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SOUTHERN GULF THROUGH A 1014 MB LOW LOCATED NEAR 27N78W TO 37N71W. TO THE E...A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 29N70W TO 21N73W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 100 NM E OF THIS BOUNDARY. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 34N51W TO 24N57W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS N OF 25N BETWEEN 49W-51W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A 1009 MB SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 25N31W WITH A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THIS CENTER TO 20N27W TO 13N38W TO 21N51W. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS LOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS... EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT TO MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OUT NEAR 30N60W TO THE E TIP OF CUBA INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL ENHANCE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES THROUGH WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW N OF IT. THE LOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE ENHANCING CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA