000 AXNT20 KNHC 091724 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE DEC 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OF 1008 MB IS LOCATED NEAR 24N30W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N28W SW TO THE LOW TO 20N31W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AZORES IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 22N TO 32N BETWEEN 18W AND 33W. METEO FRANCE FORECASTS CONTINUATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA OF METEOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO- FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 08N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N30W TO 07N40W TO 06N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N TO 10N BETWEEN 13W AND 51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...THE EASTERN GULF...AND FAR WESTERN ATLANTIC. MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS OVER THE WESTERN GULF. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND OVER THE FL STRAITS. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 2 DAYS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE GULF WILL MAINTAIN FAIR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A MID TO UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS S FROM THE EASTERN GULF COVERING THE NW CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS N FROM S AMERICA AND COVERS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN BASIN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE W ATLANTIC OVER THE SE BAHAMAS AND INTO THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OTHER THAN A CLUSTER OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EXTREME SW CARIBBEAN WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COASTAL BORDER OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH...THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN IS CONVECTION FREE. NE TRADE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT PREVAIL ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TONIGHT ACROSS CUBA AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND WILL PROGRESS SOUTHWARD TO EXTEND FROM THE BELIZE COAST TO EASTERN CUBA BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT. HISPANIOLA... MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS IS CONTINUING TO SUPPORT A STABLE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE ISLAND TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE ISLAND TUESDAY FROM THE NW WHICH WILL BRING AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS ISLAND TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM 31N76W TO THE N BAHAMAS NEAR 27N79W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N81W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE FRONT. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND NW WINDS OF 20 TO 25 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 26N71W TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 22N73W TO THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 80 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. FARTHER EAST...A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 58W IS PRODUCING A REGION OF UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE TO ITS EAST WHICH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 19N TO 31N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W. OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A DEEP UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR 26N30W SUPPORTS A 1008 SURFACE LOW NEAR 23N30W. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR MORE DETAILS ON THIS LOW AND GALE FORCE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND WILL STALL OUT NEAR 30N60W TO THE E TIP OF CUBA INCLUDING THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT WITH BREEZY NORTHERLY FLOW N OF THE FRONT. THE LOW IN THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT MOVES NE. CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE WITH THIS LOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO