000 AXNT20 KNHC 091114 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED BY A 1008 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 24N30W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 27N23W SW TO THE LOW TO 19N32W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW AND A RIDGE TO THE E AND N OF IT IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE LOW WITHIN 570 NM. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION AND TSTMS ARE FROM 20N-30N BETWEEN 18W-28W. METEO FRANCE FORECAST CONTINUATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREA OF METEOR THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 08N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N28W TO 05N40W TO 07N53W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 05N-10N EAST OF 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION BEING ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER CENTRAL TEXAS. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. IN THE WESTERN GULF W OF 94W...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 5-15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE MIDDLE-LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. TROUGHINESS AT THE MID- LEVELS SUPPORT A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N72W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO 17N76W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 16N ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 130 NM FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE CENTRAL COAST OF NORTHERN PANAMA. AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. TRADES OF 5-20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERING THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORT N-NE FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER THE NW BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU NIGHT...THEN WILL STALL TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT OVER EASTERN CUBA. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND EXCEPT WESTERN ADJACENT WATERS WHERE A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 17N76W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE OVER SW HAITI AS WELL AS W AND SW ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT REACHING EASTERN CUBA IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ISLAND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN CONUS SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N76W SW TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS NEAR 23N82W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 24N72W TO EASTERN CUBA NEAR 20N74W TO 17N76W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 20N BETWEEN 48W-52W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND FROM 30N67W SW TO EASTERN CUBA BY THU NIGHT WHERE IT WILL STALL TO DISSIPATE FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ RAMOS