000 AXNT20 KNHC 090604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE DEC 09 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS OVER THE EASTERN ATLC. THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANCHORED BY A 1012 MB LOW CENTER NEAR 24N28W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM 26N23W SW TO THE LOW TO 20N29W. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE WITHIN 380 NM OF THE LOW CENTER IN THE NE QUADRANT. METEO FRANCE FORECAST CONTINUATION OF GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREAS OF METEOR AND CAPE VERDE. FOR FURTHER DETAILS...PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W TO 08N19W TO 07N24W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N35W TO 03N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-10N EAST OF 47W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING COVERS THE EASTERN GULF WHILE RIDGING COVERS THE WESTERN BASIN. HOWEVER...SURFACE RIDGING PREVAILS ACROSS THE REGION BEING ANCHORED BY A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER TEXAS. EXCEPT FOR THE FAR WESTERN GULF...DEEP LAYER DRY AIR CONTINUES TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER AND CLEAR SKIES. IN THE WESTERN GULF...INCLUDING THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-20 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... IN THE MIDDLE-LEVELS...AN ANTICYCLONE COVERS THE EASTERN BASIN WHILE THE BASE OF A TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. AT THE UPPER-LEVELS...WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES. THE MID-LEVEL TROUGHING SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 24N73W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N75W. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG WITH PATCHES OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ENHANCE ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF 15N BETWEEN 72W-78W. SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS NOTED WITHIN 170 NM FROM THE COAST OF NICARAGUA TO THE COAST OF NORTHERN PANAMA. AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE FROM ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE IN THE CARIBBEAN. TRADES OF 5-20 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE SW ATLC SUPPORT N-NE FLOW OF 10-15 KT OVER THE NW BASIN. THE TAIL OF A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...HOWEVER DISSIPATING. THE REMAINDER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN THROUGH THU MORNING. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND EXCEPT WESTERN ADJACENT WATERS. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE EASTERN BAHAMAS...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO NEAR 16N75W...THUS ENHANCING ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER HAITI W AND SW ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN SHORT-WAVE MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N63W SW TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 24N74W...ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 16N76W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N55W TO 24N56W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS N OF 22N BETWEEN 48W-52W. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS ANALYZED OVER THE EASTERN ATLC WITH ASSOCIATED GALE FORCE WINDS. PLEASE REFER TO THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION FOR FURTHER DETAILS. OTHERWISE...SURFACE RIDGING ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES ISLANDS DOMINATES ACROSS THE REMAINDER CENTRAL AND EASTERN BASIN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES EXPECTED WITHIN THE NEXT THREE DAYS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR