000 AXNT20 KNHC 090004 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE METEO FRANCE FORECAST CONSISTS OF GALE-FORCE WINDS IN THE AREAS OF METEOR AND CAPE VERDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. A SURFACE TROUGH CURVES FROM 25N27W TO 24N29W...TO A 1011 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 23N29W. THE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 23N29W TO 19N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 25N TO 27N BETWEEN 24W AND 26W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 19W AND 30W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND OTHER POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE AREA OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC WIND FLOW. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W...TO 10N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N20W TO 7N30W 6N40W AND 5N46W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 8N TO 10N BETWEEN 31W AND 32W...FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 28W AND 30W...WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 7N37W 7N38W 6N40W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE MODERATE FROM 3N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 32N61W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 27N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT FROM A 32N66W TRIPLE POINT... TO 27N70W AND THE CUBA COAST NEAR 23N80W. THE COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM 23N80W...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...TO THE MEXICO COAST JUST TO THE EAST OF THE NORTHERN PART OF THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W 21N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 31N TO 33N BETWEEN 57W AND 63W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 66W AND 80W...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W... AND IN THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 24N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 84W AND 95W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.A....THROUGH THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF 31N82W 26N84W 23N90W 21N97W. THIS DRIER AIR HELPS TO KEEP PRACTICALLY THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS...INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...SOUTHEASTWARD...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE TAMPA-ST. PETERSBURG METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A WEAK MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS NEAR 13N77W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 08/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.15 IN FREEPORT IN THE BAHAMAS...AND 0.08 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N73W IN COLOMBIA...ACROSS THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER...TO 8N81W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 2N TO THE NORTHERN COAST BETWEEN 70W AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN COAST...AND IN PANAMA FROM 80W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO...IN SURFACE-TO-LOW LEVEL TRADEWIND FLOW...TO THE SOUTH OF 17N60W 16N70W 14N75W 11N80W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW MOVES FROM CUBA AND THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 24N73W 21N74W...ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN CUBA...TOWARD THE EASTERN COAST OF JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN AREAS OF BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS...IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 71W AND 80W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND AN EARLIER HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...WITH A RIDGE THAT RUNS FROM COLOMBIA...THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA...TO 12N91W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA... WITH AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA BETWEEN 60W AND 70W. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT FIRST WESTERLY WIND FLOW...AND THEN SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW...WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA. THE PREDOMINANTLY SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL BE CONNECTED TO AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED RIDGE. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N52W TO 25N52W TO 20N51W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N54W...TO 28N55W AND 24N56W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 45W AND 53W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN 53W AND 58W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 28N43W 24N45W AND 18N47W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT