000 AXNT20 KNHC 081750 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... METEO FRANCE IS FORECASTING NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS TO CONTINUE IN THE AREAS OF METEOR...CAPE VERDE...AND AGADIR TODAY. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TUE MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 11N15W TO 08N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 07N31W TO 05N40W TO 05N49W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 9N BETWEEN 21W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N68W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS AND ACROSS THE S GULF FROM 23N82W TO 21N92W THEN S TO THE COAST OF MEXICO NEAR 19N92W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM MAINLY N OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING SE OVER THE N GULF. DIFFLUENCE AHEAD OF THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING ISOLATED SHOWERS FROM THE FL PANHANDLE AND OVER THE NE GULF. N TO NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE BASIN N OF THE FRONT. NE WINDS OF 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE COLD FRONT OVER THE GULF WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE BASIN WILL DOMINATE THE GULF THROUGH WEDNESDAY. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS THAT EXTENDS NW FROM S AMERICA AND ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA IS PROVIDING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. AT THE SURFACE...A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE SE BAHAMAS OVER THE E TIP OF CUBA AND OVER THE N CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO 19N75W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 100 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THIS TROUGH. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN...OTHER THAN SOME PATCHES OF CLOUD COVER OVER THE NW AND SW CARIBBEAN...MAINLY FAIR WEATHER IS OCCURRING. NE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE OVER THE CENTRAL AND W BASIN...WHILE E TO NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE OVER THE E BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW CARIBBEAN TUESDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. HISPANIOLA... FAIR WEATHER CONTINUES ACROSS HISPANIOLA TODAY. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH DRIFTING SE TOWARD HAITI MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ACROSS THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT MAY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE ISLAND FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N67W TO THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 25N76W TO THE FL STRAITS NEAR 24N80W...AND THEN OVER THE S GULF. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COLD FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT ARE N OF THE FRONT. N TO NE WINDS OF 5 TO 10 KT ARE S OF THE FRONT. THE SAME UPPER TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1006 MB LOW NEAR 34N54W WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S TO 31N55W TO 24N58W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF THIS TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE IS OCCURRING ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THIS IS SUPPORTING SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 22N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W TO 52W. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 24N29W WITH A 1013 MB SURFACE LOW CENTERED NEAR 23N29W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 25N26W TO THE SURFACE LOW TO 19N28W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 20N TO 28N BETWEEN 22W AND 31W. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS LOW AND HIGH PRESSURE NE OF THE AZORES IS PRODUCING WINDS NEAR GALE FORCE N OF THE LOW. SEE THE SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT SE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. THE LOW IN THE E ATLANTIC WILL MOVE SLOWLY WEST WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO