000 AXNT20 KNHC 081131 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N57W TO 28N56W TO 24N61W AND A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE AZORES ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SE TO S GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 14 TO 21 FT IN E TO SE SWELL. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH THIS MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. METEO FRANCE CONTINUE TO FORECAST GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE AREAS OF METEOR AND CAPE VERDE TODAY...WHICH ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH BY TUE MORNING. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 08N13W TO 07N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N30W TO 04N40W TO 05N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 04N-09N BETWEEN 20W AND 43W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA NEAR 24N80W...THEN SW ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 22N88W TO 18N93W. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO THE SW GULF. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER NW FLORIDA AND ADJACENT WATERS COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE LATER TODAY AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES COVER THE CENTRAL AND NW BASIN WHILE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 11N. OTHERWISE...TWO PRE-FRONTAL TROUGHS ARE ANALYZED...ONE ALONG 20N87W TO 15N87W AND ANOTHER FROM 25N73W...ACROSS EASTERN CUBA TO 18N75W. TRADES OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC SUPPORT N-NE FLOW OF 15 KT OVER THE NW BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUE NIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH WED NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE RAINSHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N68W SW TO ANDROS ISLAND NEAR 24N78W INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N73W TO NORTHERN JAMAICA ADJACENT WATERS WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N56W TO 24N60W. LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 21N BETWEEN 46W-53W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES ISLANDS DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 27N BETWEEN 45W AND 55W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 25N23W TO 19N27W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 230 NM NW OF THE AXIS CENTER. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 18N-27N BETWEEN 17W-31W. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD TO EXTEND NEAR 30N65W SW TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN ATLC TUE NIGHT PREVAILING THROUGH WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR