000 AXNT20 KNHC 080604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 08 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...ATLANTIC OCEAN GALE-FORCE WINDS... A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 31N58W TO 25N60W TO 18N62W AND A BROAD RIDGE ANCHORED ON THE AZORES ISLANDS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SE TO S GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W. SEAS IN THIS REGION ARE 14 TO 20 FT IN E TO SE SWELL. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH BY MONDAY MORNING. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. METEO FRANCE CONTINUE TO FORECAST NE NEAR GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS DURING THE NEXT 42 HOURS IN THE AREAS OF IRVING...MADEIRA...METEOR...CANARIAS...AGADIR AND NW OF CAPE VERDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 09N14W TO 06N20W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 05N31W TO 06N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 03N-08N BETWEEN 23W AND 37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS THE SW N ATLC TO THE NORTHERN FLORIDA KEYS NEAR 25N81W...THEN WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF ALONG 25N88W TO 25N92W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO 25N98W. A SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF THE TAIL OF THE FRONT HAS DISSIPATED. OTHERWISE...A MIDDLE- TO UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE SUPPORTS SURFACE RIDGING ALONG THE EASTERN CONUS EXTENDING TO THE CENTRAL GULF. EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NW GULF COINCIDING WITH A REGION OF DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT...FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. N-NE WIND FLOW IN THE RANGE OF 10-15 KT DOMINATES ACROSS THE BASIN. THE PORTION OF THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE GULF IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE BY MON MORNING AND SURFACE RIDGING WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A PAIR OF MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONES COVER THE CENTRAL AND NW BASIN WHILE WESTERLY FLOW DOMINATES ALOFT. THIS ENVIRONMENT ALONG WITH DEEP LAYER DRY AIR SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. OVER THE SW BASIN...THE MONSOON TROUGH ENHANCES SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF 11N. IN THE NE CARIBBEAN...THE TAIL OF A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES TO BE SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. OTHERWISE...TRADES OF 5-15 KT DOMINATE ACROSS THE EASTERN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WHILE A RIDGE COVERING PORTIONS OF THE W ATLC SUPPORT N-NE FLOW OF 15 KT OVER THE NW BASIN. A COLD FRONT WILL BE ENTERING THE NW BASIN TUE NIGHT MOVING ACROSS THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WED NIGHT. HISPANIOLA... AN OVERALL STABLE ENVIRONMENT AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT SUPPORT FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE ISLAND AND ADJACENT WATERS. FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUE NIGHT WHEN A COLD FRONT ENTERING THE WINDWARD PASSAGE IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT RAINSHOWERS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN ELONGATED MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLC CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N70W SW TO 25N81W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SURFACE TROUGH IS ANALYZED ALONG 25N73W TO THE EASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N73W WITH NO CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH IT. FARTHER EAST...THE SAME TROUGH ALOFT SUPPORT ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 30N58W TO 22N58W TO 15N62W. LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE ALONG WITH DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS N OF 13N BETWEEN 48W-56W. A BROAD SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED OVER THE AZORES DOMINATES THE REMAINDER BASIN. A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE SURFACE TROUGH AND THE RIDGE IS SUPPORTING GALE FORCE WINDS N OF 26N BETWEEN 44W AND 53W. SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. A WEAKNESS IN THE SURFACE RIDGE IS BEING ANALYZED AS A SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 24N28W TO 16N31W WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 200 NM WEST OF THE NORTHERN REGION OF THE TROUGH. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 21N-28N BETWEEN 22W-30W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR