000 AXNT20 KNHC 080003 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN DEC 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE PRESENT IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 31N58W TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N58W...TO 17N61W. N OF 24N E OF 40W E WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. N OF 26N BETWEEN 40W AND 54W E TO SE WINDS 30 TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 TO 19 FT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. THE METEO FRANCE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS CONSISTS OF THE THREAT OF SOUTHWEST NEAR GALE TO LOCALLY SEVERE GALE IN THE AREAS OF IRVING...MADEIRA...METEOR...AND CAPE VERDE. PLEASE REFER TO THE METEO-FRANCE HIGH SEAS FORECAST THAT IS LISTED UNDER GRAND LARGE METAREA II. THE WEBSITE ADDRESS IS WWW.METEO.FR. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N17W AND 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 6N25W AND 5N37W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 2N TO 13N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE REST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N72W TO 26N73W...AND THEN APPEARING TO ANGLE ITSELF GRADUALLY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N73W...INTO SOUTH FLORIDA JUST TO THE SOUTH OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE...TO 26N93W IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 26N93W...AND THEN IT CONTINUES TO COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 25N100W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS MUCH OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT FOR THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS FROM 25N NORTHWARD...FROM 25N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 86W AND 92W...ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...AND FROM 22N SOUTHWARD FROM 90W WESTWARD. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT MANY OF THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ALSO ARE BEING REPORTED FROM TEXAS TO FLORIDA IN THE COASTAL PLAINS. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BLOWING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 24N99W...INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION... MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE COLOMBIA/PANAMA BORDER NEAR 8N78W...TO 12N88W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN JUST OFF THE COAST FROM NORTHWESTERN NICARAGUA...TOWARD NORTHERN GUATEMALA. BROAD ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 07/1200 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.33 IN TRINIDAD...0.11 IN CURACAO...AND 0.02 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS COLOMBIA...TO 9N78W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 82W/83W ALONG 8N IN PANAMA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 77W AND 90W IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF COLOMBIA/PANAMA/COSTA RICA IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE WIND FLOW IS FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS SOUTHEASTWARD...TO HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER...FOR PORT-AU-PRINCE IN HAITI...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS. FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS IN BARAHONA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND IN PUNTA CANA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB AND FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW COVERS THE FIRST 18 HOURS-TO-24 HOURS. BROAD CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL ENGULF HISPANIOLA DURING MUCH OF THE SECOND HALF OF THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE REST OF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 74W/75W FROM SOUTHEASTERN CUBA TO 26N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS FROM CUBA TO 26N BETWEEN 70W AND 76W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH SUPPORTS A SURFACE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N58W TO A 1004 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 28N59W...TO 21N59W...TO 15N64W IN THE EASTERN PART OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION ELSEWHERE FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N24W TO 20N32W...AND 10N33W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND SCATTERED STRONG FROM 23N TO 28N BETWEEN 23W AND 32W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N38W TO 27N44W 20N48W 13N57W. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 10N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 32N38W TO 27N44W TO 20N48 TO 13N57W TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT