000 AXNT20 KNHC 071200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 28N BETWEEN 40W-55W. THESE WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED NE OF THE AZORES. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WFO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLC THREAT OF NEAR GALE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS IN THE E ATLC OVER THE METEO FRANCE AREA OF IRVING...MADEIRA...METEOR AND CAPE VERDE WITH THE THREAT OF GALE OVER CAPE VERDE. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST WITH METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 12N16W ALONG 9N18W TO 8N22W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N31W 5N39W TO 3N47W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 10N-13N E OF 18W TO THE COAST OF W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER NE FLORIDA N OF CEDAR KEY ALONG 28N86W 27N93W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO JUST S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE N OF THE FRONT TO THE COAST OF FLORIDA TO LOUISIANA AND INLAND OVER TEXAS. DENSE FOG IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO THE FRONT. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING FROM THE W BAY OF CAMPECHE TO THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONT S COVERING THE GULF. THIS IS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN THIS MORNING. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON NIGHT AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS PANAMA ALONG 9N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND COSTA RICA GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 11N W OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W TO 15N62W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N LEAVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN THIS MORNING. MODERATE TO FRESH WINDS ARE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND W CARIBBEAN WHILE THE TROUGHING OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES HAS WEAKENED THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE E CARIBBEAN. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE COAST OF COLOMBIA WHERE WINDS WILL REACH FRESH TO STRONG BREEZE IN THE MORNING HOURS TUE THROUGH WED. HISPANIOLA... SKIES HAVE BECOME CLEAR ACROSS THE ISLAND THIS MORNING. NE TO E FLOW ALOFT AND THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE ISLAND FROM SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER... ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE NE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ACROSS THE N GULF OF MEXICO. THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO COVERS THE FAR W ATLC WITH A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING OVER THE BAHAMAS EXTENDING FROM 27N76W TO 21N74W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 17N BETWEEN 56W-70W SUPPORTING A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 25N60W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE ALONG 28N60W TO BEYOND 32N58W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 19N59W TO OVER THE LESSER ANTILLES NEAR 15N61W. A SECOND...HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 275 NM OF LINE FROM 15N54W ALONG 25N54W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1043 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM NE OF THE AZORES. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS THIS MORNING AND EXTEND FROM 31N71W TO PALM BEACH FLORIDA TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE FROM 31N68W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA BY MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS LATE MON AND EXTEND FROM 31N78W TO CAPE CANAVERAL MON NIGHT...FROM 31N71W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM 28N65W TO EASTERN CUBA WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW