000 AXNT20 KNHC 070533 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST SUN DEC 07 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ATLC GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT N OF 26N BETWEEN 35W-42W AND N OF 28N BETWEEN 42W-54W. THESE WINDS ARE BEING GENERATED DUE TO THE TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE LOW/TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC AND THE STRONG SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED N OF THE AZORES. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WFO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ATLC DEVELOPING NEAR GALE TO GALE IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS IN THE E ATLC OVER THE METEO FRANCE AREA OF IRVING...METEOR AND CAPE VERDE. PLEASE SEE THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST WITH METEO FRANCE UNDER WMO HEADER FQNT50 LFPW FOR MORE INFORMATION. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W ALONG 8N19W TO 7N27W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W 4N34W TO 4N40W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 19W TO INLAND OVER W AFRICA. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLC IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ACROSS SE LOUISIANA TO 29N91W TO INLAND OVER TEXAS JUST N OF BROWNSVILLE. BROKEN TO OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER LOUISIANA AND TEXAS. DENSE FOG IS WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF FLORIDA FROM FORT MYERS TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF WATERS EXTENDING ALONG 96W FROM S MEXICO TO OVER E TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BRIDGING THE FRONT COVERING THE GULF. THIS IS LEAVING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM NAPLES FLORIDA TO NE MEXICO SUN NIGHT AND DISSIPATE ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF BY MON NIGHT AS THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT MOVES SE THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE CARIBBEAN WITH AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA TO THE YUCATAN CHANNEL. THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS S OF PANAMA IN THE E PACIFIC REGION BUT CONTINUES TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 12N W OF 78W. A SURFACE TROUGH IN THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W TO 14N63W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER THE CARIBBEAN N OF 13N LEAVING MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN WITH CLEAR SKIES AGAIN TONIGHT. THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE IS PRODUCING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT TO BRING FRESH TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG NE WINDS TO ACROSS NW AND N CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN AND WILL THROUGH LATE TONIGHT WITH LIGHTER WINDS ELSEWHERE. DEVELOPING LOW PRES OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST WILL FURTHER WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE AREA MON NIGHT THROUGH WED. HISPANIOLA... A NARROW BAND OF ISOLATED SHOWERS IS MOVING ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC WITH CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. NE TO E FLOW ALOFT AND THE NE SURFACE FLOW WILL KEEP THE ISLAND FROM SEEING ANY SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TUE. HOWEVER...ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE ALWAYS A POSSIBILITY WITH THE NE TRADE WINDS. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES INTO THE NW ATLC SUPPORTING THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY IN THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 28N65W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BENEATH THIS UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 28N76W ACROSS THE BAHAMAS TO 22N75W. AN UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC N OF 16N BETWEEN 56W-65W SUPPORTING A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 25N60W AND A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING N-NE TO BEYOND 32N57W AND A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING S ALONG 20N61W TO OVER THE LEEWARD ISLANDS NEAR 17N61W TO 14N63W. A SECOND... HIGHLY AMPLIFIED UPPER RIDGE IS TO THE E PROVIDING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE A BROAD AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM 15N55W ALONG 26N54W TO BEYOND 32N55W. A SURFACE RIDGE COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE CENTRAL AND ALL OF THE E ATLC ANCHORED BY A 1045 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM N OF THE AZORES. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS TONIGHT INTO SUN AND EXTEND FROM 32N69W TO S/CENTRAL FLORIDA SUN NIGHT AND WEAKEN FROM 32N67W THROUGH THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS TO CENTRAL CUBA MON NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO NW WATERS LATE MON AND EXTEND FROM 32N71W TO CENTRAL FLORIDA MON NIGHT...FROM 32N70W TO THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA TUE NIGHT AND FROM BERMUDA TO E CUBA WED NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW