000 AXNT20 KNHC 051200 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W TO 5N18W AND 5N20W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N20W TO 4N25W 1N30W 1N34W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG WITHIN A 30 NM RADIUS OF 5N12W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 27W AND 33W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 3N TO 20N BETWEEN 10W AND 40W...AND FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 40W TO 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 90W/91W IS IN THE CENTRAL PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE 30N85W 26N90W 21N97W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR 30N86W... INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 26N90W...INTO THE MEXICO GULF COAST PLAINS NEAR 19N96W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH... KVBS...KSPR...KMDJ...KMIS...KIPN...AND KBVE. ICAO STATIONS KXIH AND KVBS ALSO ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...LIGHT RAIN...AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS AND INLAND A BIT MORE IN SOME CASES. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG ARE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE AREAS OF PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI AND MOBILE ALABAMA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN PERRY FLORIDA... IN NAPLES...AND IN MARATHON KEY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY INLAND...FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS INTO WESTERN GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SAME INLAND AREAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM THE REMNANT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS THAT IS IN GUATEMALA AND PARTS OF THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA... EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN 75W AT THE COLOMBIA COAST AND 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS NEARBY. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.85 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG MOSTLY IN COLOMBIA FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 72W IN VENEZUELA AND 75W IN COLOMBIA. SCATTERED STRONG ALONG THE COLOMBIA COAST FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 77W AND 79W. NUMEROUS STRONG IN PANAMA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 80W AND 82W. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 81W AND THE COAST OF NICARAGUA. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 17N SOUTHWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/A SHEAR AXIS THAT IS MOSTLY INLAND FROM THE GULF OF HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CEILING ARE IN SANTIAGO. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL START TO DIG...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWARD...MORE AND MORE WITH TIME...TOWARD 18N60W...AT THE 36-HOUR MARK IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL START TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...AFTER 18 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL GIVE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...GIVING HISPANIOLA NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RELATED TO A GULF OF MEXICO TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N62W...TO 28N69W...ACROSS THE BAHAMAS NEAR 24N72W...TO CUBA NEAR 21N76W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N69W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BEYOND 32N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N55W 26N59W 16N62W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 23N TO 33N BETWEEN 49W AND 66W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 18N AT THE EDGE OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA NORTHWARD...BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. THE REMNANT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 33N30W TO 30N42W TO 22N42W AND 10N44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 11N TO 16N BETWEEN 47W AND 55W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 39W/40W FROM 13N TO 21N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 17N TO 21N BETWEEN 35W AND 41W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N23W TO 24N23W...ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 11N27W. THE SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW ALSO SPANS THE CANARY ISLANDS. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 11N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 31N55W 26N59W 16N62W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT