000 AXNT20 KNHC 050603 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST FRI DEC 05 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL BORDER SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE AND GUINEA NEAR 9N13W TO 6N17W AND 5N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 5N21W TO 5N30W AND 6N40W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 4N TO 5N BETWEEN 19W AND 22W...AND FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 29W AND 36W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT IS ALONG 92W/93W IS IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY FROM THE LINE 29N89W 24N92W 21N97W EASTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM SOUTHERN GEORGIA/NORTHERN FLORIDA NEAR 31N83W TO 26N91W...TO THE MEXICO GULF COAST NEAR 21N97W. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH... KVBS...KVAF...KGHB...KATP...AND KIPN. KGVX...KXIH...AND KVBS ALSO ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... EDINBURG AND HARLINGEN IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS ARE REPORTING VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER TEXAS FROM ALICE TO VICTORIA AND PORT LAVACA...AND NORTHWARD TO THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA...AND TO THE UPPER TEXAS GULF COAST. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING REPORTED IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA...AND 1 MILE OR LESS IN FOG FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO GULF SHORES ALABAMA...TO PANAMA CITY IN FLORIDA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... THE REMNANT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS APPEARS TO BE MOSTLY INLAND FROM HONDURAS TO EL SALVADOR AND GUATEMALA. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE IN THE SAME INLAND AREAS. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW SPANS THE CARIBBEAN SEA... FROM REMNANT TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EASTWARD. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 79W/80W FROM 16N SOUTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO 14N BETWEEN 78W AND 79W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 05/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.85 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 10N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 11N SOUTHWARD FROM 78W EASTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW FROM A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE EAST OF THE REMNANTS OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/A SHEAR AXIS THAT IS INLAND FROM HONDURAS TO GUATEMALA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 18 HOURS OF THE 48- HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. A TROUGH WILL START TO DIG...FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN SOUTHWARD...MORE AND MORE WITH TIME...TOWARD 18N60W...AT THE 36-HOUR MARK IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE FLOW ACROSS HISPANIOLA WILL START TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTHWARD...AFTER 18 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL GIVE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND FLOW TO HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL END UP SHIFTING SOUTHWARD...GIVING HISPANIOLA NORTHERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS...RELATED TO A GULF OF MEXICO TO HISPANIOLA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N63W...TO 30N65W TO 26N69W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N77W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 10N71W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA...ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BEYOND 32N54W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 28N60W 17N64W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 24N TO 31N BETWEEN 50W AND 64W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE ARE ELSEWHERE FROM 20N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 46W AND 70W. THE REMNANT OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 24N35W TO 14N46W. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 33N22W TO 25N29W AND 16N39W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 13N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND THE 28N60W 17N64W SURFACE TROUGH. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT