000 AXNT20 KNHC 040604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST THU DEC 04 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 5N16W AND 4N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 4N19W TO 4N24W 8N36W AND 5N50W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 13N49W 9N51W 5N52W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 10N TO 11N BETWEEN 26W AND 32W...AND FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 33W AND 42W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 2N TO 14N BETWEEN 10W AND 50W...AND FROM 7N TO 11N BETWEEN 50W AND 57W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 108W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NORTHWEST WIND FLOW REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 31N85W IN FLORIDA...TO 28N85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...TO 25N86W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N82W 25N86W 25N97W. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N76W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA NEAR 29N82W...INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 23N90W AND 23N97W. A STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...TO THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA... TO A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 27N98W. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN SECTIONS OF THE COASTAL PLAINS OF MEXICO...SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KXIH AND KVBS AND KDLP AND KBVE WITH VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...KEIR...KSPR...KGHB...AND KGRY. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER MUCH OF THE TEXAS COASTAL PLAINS...FROM THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA SOUTHWARD. AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AND SOME LIGHT RAIN ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST AREA...AND IN THE NORTHERN SECTIONS OF THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SOUTHERN LOUISIANA. AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG COVER SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS FROM SOUTHEASTERN MISSISSIPPI TO ALABAMA...TO PANAMA CITY FLORIDA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W...TO 29N74W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 19N83W... INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N TO 20N FROM 80W WESTWARD. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N64W TO 21N65W...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N67W AND TO 7N66W IN VENEZUELA. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF THE MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL 32N70W-TO-HONDURAS TROUGH THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN SECTIONS OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 18N60W 15N62W 12N63W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 12N TO 18N BETWEEN 58W AND 63W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 16N80W 13N80W 11N78W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 75W AND 77W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ALSO FROM 12N TO 15N BETWEEN 73W AND 77W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N73W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N79W IN PANAMA...BEYOND 9N84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 84W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO THE EAST OF A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT CROSSES CUBA INTO HONDURAS. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE IN PUNTA CANA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN SANTIAGO. RAIN AND MULTILAYERED CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE FOR THE FIRST 30 HOURS TO 36 HOURS. THE WIND FLOW WILL BE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR THE REST OF THE TIME PERIOD...STILL WITH A RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A TROUGH FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE TROUGH WILL BE ALONG A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST LINE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR 32N70W...TO 29N74W...TO CUBA NEAR 22N78W... INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO 19N83W... INTO HONDURAS IN CENTRAL AMERICA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 31N71W 28N72W 24N70W. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 32N60W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 23N64W TO 21N65W...ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 15N67W AND TO 7N66W IN VENEZUELA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 200 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 20N73W 26N67W BEYOND 32N62W. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 57W/58W FROM 19N TO 26N. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N TO 27N BETWEEN 50W AND 60W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N44W TO 30N47W 23N49W 18N48W 14N47W AND 12N47W. A SURFACE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N37W TO 30N42W AND 29N50W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 30N TO 34N BETWEEN 33W AND 45W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 30N45W 24N48W 14N46W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 15N NORTHWARD BETWEEN AFRICA AND 40W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT