000 AXNT20 KNHC 032356 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST WED DEC 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 74N32W TO 8N52W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM S OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 29W-40W WITH CLUSTERS WITHIN 300 NM OF ITCZ BETWEEN 31N-41W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION TO OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO TO FLORIDA BIG BEND AREA COVERING THE ENTIRE GULF. A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERS THE GULF OVER MOBILE BAY ALABAMA ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA ALONG 29N90W 28N95W TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1017 MB LOW ALONG THE COAST OF TEXAS BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND BROWNSVILLE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES S OF THE LOW TO 23N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT S OF THE LOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF EXTENDING FROM 22N94W TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE NEAR 19N93W WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS WITHIN 30 NM OF LINE FROM 22N96W TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR 18N95W. THE IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE FRONT/LOW WILL MOVE INLAND OVERNIGHT. A SURFACE RIDGE WILL BUILD S OVER THE GULF FROM THE SE CONUS AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. CARIBBEAN SEA... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS OVER W CUBA TO THE GULF OF HONDURAS WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS THEN N OVER THE INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH IS IN THE SW CARIBBEAN EXTENDING FROM 15N81W TO 11N77W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 71W-82W FROM COLOMBIA AND PANAMA TO HISPANIOLA AND W CUBA. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HOWEVER THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN N OF 15N E OF 71W AND THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 20N W OF 82W. WINDS AND SEAS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH E OF 80W THROUGH FRI AS THE W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SHIFTS NE. HISPANIOLA... THE UPPER RIDGE IS PROVIDING UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE CURRENTLY GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND. THESE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A NARROW UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FAR W ATLC EXTENDS THROUGH 32N74W OVER W CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE VIRGIN ISLANDS ALONG 25N65W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS BETWEEN THESE UPPER FEATURES EXTENDING FROM 29N77W TO 26N75W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 20N-32N BETWEEN 66W- 75W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N45W TO 23N54W SUPPORTING A DYING STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N44W ALONG 27N50W TO 21N60W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE N OF 20N W OF 45W TO THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS OVER THE NW ATLC. A BROAD INVERTED TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL ATLC ALONG OR ABOUT 60W THU AND PERSIST THROUGH SAT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW