000 AXNT20 KNHC 031732 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST WED DEC 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 8N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N30W TO 6N42W TO 8N55W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN 18W AND 27W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N TO 10N BETWEEN 27W AND 49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS OVER TX/MEXICO WHILE A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE EASTERN GULF AND FL INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN. THIS TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR 30N89W AND ACROSS THE NW GULF TO 28N95 AND THEN TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N97W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG AND NW OF THIS FRONT. EASTERLY SURFACE WINDS MAINLY BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT DOMINATE THE GULF TO THE SE OF THE FRONT. N TO NW WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KT ARE NW OF THE FRONT. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE SW GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE FROM 24N92W TO 19N92W. ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 30 NM OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS THE FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A WARM FRONT AND MOVE INLAND WHILE UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE BASIN. CARIBBEAN SEA... A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS FROM 20N87W TO 16N88W. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALONG AND WITHIN 50 NM OF THE COAST OF BELIZE AND HONDURAS. A SECOND SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N80W TO 10N81W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...A SHARP UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN WHILE A BROAD UPPER RIDGE IS OVER THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN THESE UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ARE INTERACTING WITH THE SW CARIBBEAN SURFACE TROUGH AND A MOIST AIRMASS TO SUPPORT SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N TO 16N BETWEEN 73W AND 82W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 16N TO 20N BETWEEN 75W AND 84W. THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN IS FREE OF DEEP CONVECTION. E TO NE TRADE WINDS OF 15 TO 20 KT COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE BASIN AWAY FROM CONVECTION. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN AND SPREAD TOWARD THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. HISPANIOLA... ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ISLAND WITH A NEARBY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER FL AND SW CARIBBEAN. THE TROUGH WILL PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY WHILE IT SLOWLY MOVES EAST. THIS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A SHARP UPPER TOUGH OVER FL IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 20N TO 31N BETWEEN 67W TO 77W INCLUDING THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN BAHAMAS AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. FARTHER EAST...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 53W SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT FROM 31N45W TO 21N61W AND A SURFACE TROUGH FROM 27N48W TO 21N54W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITH THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES FROM 13N58W TO 17N59W. NO DEEP CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC IN THE VICINITY OF THE STATIONARY FRONT AND NEARBY SURFACE TROUGH WITH CONVECTION. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W ATLANTIC WILL MOVE EAST WITH CONVECTION. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ LATTO