000 AXNT20 KNHC 031203 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST WED DEC 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 8N18W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N18W TO 7N35W AND 7N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 10W AND 16W...AND WITHIN 150 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 9N21W 5N31W 6N38W 10N47W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 110W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. THE MULTILAYERED CLOUDS THAT WERE IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO HAVE MOVED COMPARATIVELY MORE EASTWARD TO THE BAHAMAS. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO...EXCEPT IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER...TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE FROM SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. A SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 20N... ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST PLAINS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST... MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF... KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KGUL...KHQI...KGBK...KGHB...KGRY... KMDJ AND KDLP AND KBVE WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...KIPN...KVBS...AND KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE TEXAS GULF COAST PLAINS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS SURROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND A VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN FLORIDA IN...CRESTVIEW WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...IN MARY ESTHER...IN PERRY WITH A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...VISIBILITY OF 2 MILES AND FOG IN BROOKSVILLE...VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES AND FOG AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN THE WATER FROM 13N TO 16N BETWEEN 77W AND 80W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 13N NORTHWARD FROM 72W WESTWARD. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO-HONDURAS TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 77W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM PANAMA TO 13N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 73W AND 75W. SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA FROM 4N TO 7N BETWEEN 75W AND 78W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN LA ROMANA AND PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SANTIAGO AND PUERTO PLATA...AND IT WAS RAINING IN PUERTO PLATA AT 03/0900 UTC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 70W FROM HISPANIOLA NORTHWARD. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE RAINSHOWERS ARE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NORTHWARD BETWEEN 67W AND 80W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N47W TO 28N52W...TO A 23N55W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 11N56W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N41W TO 31N43W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR 31N43W...AND IT CONTINUES TO 28N45W 25N50W AND 20N60W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N40W TO 26N48W AND 20N55W. BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE EAST OF THE 32N41W 20N60W FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AND NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN THE 32N41W 20N60W FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND THE U.S.A. EAST COAST. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...22N21W... ACROSS THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...TO 9N26W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT