000 AXNT20 KNHC 030604 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST WED DEC 03 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA- BISSAU NEAR 12N16W TO 10N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 10N21W TO 8N30W 7N40W 8N48W TO THE COASTA OF FRENCH GUIANA NEAR 5N53W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 11N15W 8N23W 6N36W 8N47W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 110W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WIND FLOW REACHES THE GULF OF MEXICO FROM 90W WESTWARD. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF GEORGIA AND THE CAROLINAS...ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA...THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL...INTO HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG THE LINE FROM THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSUA THE CENTRAL COASTAL SECTIONS OF HONDURAS. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO EXCEPT IN THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE AREA. THE WESTERNMOST END OF A SURFACE RIDGE REACHES WEST CENTRAL GEORGIA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM COASTAL MEXICO NEAR 21N... ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST PLAINS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF... KGVX...KXIH...KVBS...AND KGHB. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AND PATCHY AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST PLAINS...INTO SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA...AND IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...AND IN SOUTHERN/ COASTAL SECTIONS OF ALABAMA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN MILTON FLORIDA IN THE WESTERN PART OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... AND IN THE KEY WEST METROPOLITAN AREA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL TO HONDURAS. A SURFACE TROUGH RUNS FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO HONDURAS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 78W AND 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 20N BETWEEN JAMAICA AND 82W. BROAD MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA THAT IS TO THE WEST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA-TO- HONDURAS TROUGH. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 03/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.05 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 7N/8N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA... BEYOND 87W IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 12N SOUTHWARD FROM 75W WESTWARD. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL SOUTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SPANS HISPANIOLA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW TO SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE AREA FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO PUNTA CANA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SANTIAGO...AND IT IS RAINING IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA WITH A NORTH-TO-SOUTH ORIENTED RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT SOUTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL BE TO THE SOUTHEAST OF HISPANIOLA...AND A NORTHEAST-TO-SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL CROSS THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA...INTO THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT BROAD NORTHEAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN TROUGH REMAINS. IT HAS BEEN IN THE SAME POSITION FOR AT LEAST THE LAST 24 HOURS OR MORE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N43W TO 26N50W AND 20N59W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 240 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 19N55W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT