000 AXNT20 KNHC 022326 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST TUE DEC 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2245 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 9N16W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N40W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90/120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-24W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 39W-42W AND FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 44W-46W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE E PACIFIC REGION ACROSS MEXICO TO OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAIN STATES COVERING THE FAR W GULF WHILE THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS SHIFTED E EXTENDING FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OVER LOUISIANA NEAR ATCHAFALAYA BAY ALONG 29N92W TO 26N96W THEN S TO INLAND OVER MEXICO NEAR TAMPICO. OVERCAST LOW/MID CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE W OF THE FRONT TO INLAND OVER TEXAS AND MEXICO. AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN INTO THE W ATLC IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT AND COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE E GULF ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS S OF 26N E OF 83W AND S OF 24N BETWEEN 83W AND 86W TO OVER CUBA AND THROUGH THE YUCATAN CHANNEL INCLUDING THE FLORIDA KEYS AND S FLORIDA PENINSULA. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. FRONT WILL MOVE N TONIGHT. CARIBBEAN SEA... THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHILE THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM VENEZUELA ACROSS HISPANIOLA THEN N OVER THE W ATLC. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE YUCATAN CHANNEL NEAR 22N86W TO 18N87W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-17N BETWEEN 79W-83W AND N OF 17N W OF 80W TO OVER CUBA AND TO THE COAST OF THE YUCATAN. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOTTING THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH WED AND THU. HISPANIOLA... CURRENTLY ISOLATED LOW LEVEL FAST MOVING SHOWERS DOT THE ISLAND COMPLIMENTS OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT WHEN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND INCREASING THE CHANCES OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ISLAND INTO FRI. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS HISPANIOLA TO 28N74W THEN A SECOND UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 27N63W TO BEYOND 32N60W. A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ATLC NEAR 32N49W TO 23N58W SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENTERS THE AREA NEAR 32N43W ALONG 26N50W TO 22N57W WHERE A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED TO JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS NEAR 19N63W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM OF E OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 120 NM W OF THE FRONT N OF 25N. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT AND OVER THE E ATLC E OF THE FRONT. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED WHEN THE RIDGE SHIFTS E-NE AS A NEW SURFACE TROUGH DEVELOPS NE OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS THEN SHIFTS E ON THU AND NORTHWARD ON FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW