000
AXNT20 KNHC 021726
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
105 PM EST TUE DEC 02 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1715 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE ITCZ EXTENDS FROM THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 10N14W TO 
7N30W TO 4N40W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE 
COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N-12N BETWEEN 16W-26W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-7N BETWEEN 27W-30W. WIDELY 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 3N-7N BETWEEN 37W-42W.  
 
...DISCUSSION...

...THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO FROM 
SOUTH LOUISIANA AT 29N92W TO E OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS AT 26N96W TO 
NE OF TAMPICO MEXICO AT 23N97W. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED 
SHOWERS OFF THE COAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS FROM 22N-26N BETWEEN 
95W-97W. FURTHER E... SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER THE 
SE GULF FROM 23N-25N BETWEEN 85W-87W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE 
ELSEWHERE OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF S OF 
28N E OF 90W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS 
OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVER 
THE SE GULF AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE OVER THE GULF.  
EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONT TO DISSIPATE... AND 
THE SHOWERS TO PERSIST OVER THE SE GULF AND THE STRAITS OF 
FLORIDA.  

...THE CARIBBEAN SEA...

15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST 
WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN FROM 16N-21N BETWEEN 81W-
85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER 
THE SW CARIBBEAN FROM 9N-15N BETWEEN 77W-84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
ARE ALSO INLAND OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL CUBA...HONDURAS... AND 
NICARAGUA. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER 
THE W CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 88W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE E OF 
THE WAVE AXIS IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION OVER THE W CARIBBEAN. 
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE E CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS ALONG 72W 
AND SUBSIDENCE E OF 70W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS.

...HISPANIOLA...

PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER HISPANIOLA. EXPECT OVER THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS FOR AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS...AND CONVECTION S OF 
THE ISLAND.  
 
...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 
22N57W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO JUST N OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS 
AT 19N64W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT. 
SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W. IN THE 
UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE CENTRAL 
ATLANTIC N OF 20N BETWEEN 50W-60W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. 
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NW OF THE 
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 18N27W. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE SE OF THE 
CENTER IS ENHANCING THE CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST OF WEST 
AFRICA. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. 

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
FORMOSA