000 AXNT20 KNHC 021158 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST TUE DEC 02 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N14W TO 8N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 8N19W TO 7N30W 6N40W 4N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 16W AND 20W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 22W AND 28W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 7N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 44W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 30W AND 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO...PASSING THROUGH GEORGIA...FLORIDA...INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 27N SOUTHWARD FROM 91W EASTWARD. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE FROM 91W EASTWARD. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT IS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FRONT PASSES THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE BORDER AREA OF THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS/THE NORTHEASTERNMOST CORNER OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 93W WESTWARD. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N68W...THROUGH 33N78W... ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE RUNS FROM NORTHEASTERN COASTAL MEXICO... ALONG THE MEXICO GULF COAST PLAINS...TO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE BEING EXPERIENCED IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF... KGVX...KXIH...KVAF...KEMK...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...AND KVOA. ICAO STATIONS KEIR AND KSPR ARE REPORTING LOW CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS...AND PATCHY AREAS OF VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG...ARE IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE TEXAS GULF COAST PLAINS. LIGHT RAIN IS BEING REPORTED AT SOME SITES THAT ARE AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG COVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF LOUISIANA. THE VISIBILITIES ARE 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND INCLUDING SOUTHERN/COASTAL SECTIONS OF MISSISSIPPI. EARLIER LOW VISIBILITIES THAT WERE IN SOUTHERN ALABAMA HAVE CLEARED UP DURING THE LAST FEW OBSERVATIONS. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED IN FLORIDA IN...DESTIN...MARIANNA...AND APALACHICOLA. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 24N62W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 15N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SHEAR LINE IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N58W TO 20N63W 19N67W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND OFF THE COASTS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WELL TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS INLAND IN CENTRAL AMERICA FROM PANAMA TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA... SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N NORTHWARD FROM 79W WESTWARD TO THE COASTS OF THE COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 02/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.12 IN GUADELOUPE...AND 0.01 IN CURACAO. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 74W IN COLOMBIA... PANAMA...AND IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 11N SOUTHWARD TO LAND FROM 80W WESTWARD. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 4N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 78W...IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS OF PANAMA FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 77W AND 81W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 23N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. A SHEAR LINE IS IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N58W TO 20N63W 19N67W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 74W AND 75W...AND OFF THE COASTS OF CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS AND HISPANIOLA FROM 20N TO 23N BETWEEN 70W AND 78W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS WELL TO THE EAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 53W AND 61W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN SANTO DOMINGO AND LA ROMANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS AND A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING REPORTED IN SANTIAGO. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL CROSS HISPANIOLA AS A RIDGE MOVES FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WITH A NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED TROUGH WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 6 TO 12 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE TROUGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA...WITH A RIDGE IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA WITH A LARGE-SCALE ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE...FOLLOWED BY A CARIBBEAN SEA RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N50W TO 27N55W...TO A 23N60W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 18N64W IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA...INTO NORTH CENTRAL VENEZUELA. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 29N50W 25N53W AND 22N58W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 22N58W TO 20N63W 19N67W...TO NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ALONG 71W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W TO 27N50W TO 24N54W 21N55W 19N57W 17N61W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE FROM 14N NORTHWARD BETWEEN 39W AND THE AREAS OF PRECIPITATION. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 90 NM TO 180 NM TO THE EAST OF THE FRONT FROM 23N TO 28N. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE WEST OF THE 32N50W 18N64W TROUGH. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N14W... ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 25N16W...TO A 19N25W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...TO 12N31W AND 6N33W. NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT IN SATELLITE IMAGERY. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1029 MB WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N68W...THROUGH 33N78W... ACROSS SOUTH CAROLINA...GEORGIA...THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE...ALABAMA...AND MISSISSIPPI...INTO SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES FROM 37N28W... THROUGH 32N29W TO 21N29W AND 12N29W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT