000 AXNT20 KNHC 012344 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST MON DEC 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 8N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 4N34W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N E OF 17W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 2N-6N BETWEEN 28W-36W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER THE GULF EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE YUCATAN PENINSULA SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT IS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST AT 01/2100 UTC FROM PORT ARTHUR TO CORPUS CHRISTI. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 60 NM OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA. THE EASTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE TEXAS FRONT IS USHERING IN SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM THE COAST OF CUBA NEAR 23N81W TO 26N89W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE E TONIGHT THEN STALL EARLY TUE FROM S CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE BEFORE WEAKENING AND SHIFTING N LATE TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA TO E CUBA THEN NE OVER THE W ATLC. THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE NE CARIBBEAN. UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUNCE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN COUPLED WITH THE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 10N-22N W OF 79W TO OVER THE YUCATAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA. CLEAR SKIES COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE W ATLC WILL SUPPORT FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH TUE THEN DIMINISH WED. HISPANIOLA... A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND AND WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS JUST ALONG THE COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOPED INLAND OVER THE ISLAND WAS COMPLIMENTS OF THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS AND DAYTIME HEATING. ALL THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY WED WHEN SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO ADVECT DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE ISLAND GENERATING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INTO THU. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE CARIBBEAN ACROSS E CUBA TO BEYOND 32N68W WITH A NARROW UPPER TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH THE W/CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N43W ALONG 28N471W TO 25N523W WHERE A SHEAR AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 23N56W 21N66W TO ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA FROM 70W TO 73W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 200 NM OF W OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 150 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE SHEAR AXIS E OF 62W. LINGERING MOISTURE IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 22N TO THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 69W-72W. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 225 NM W-NW BERMUDA AND WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED WELL N OF THE REGION. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH WED. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW