000 AXNT20 KNHC 011749 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST MON DEC 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 10N14W TO 7N18W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 4N32W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 12W-16W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-10N BETWEEN 16W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 2N- 9N BETWEEN 27W-34W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS FROM 33N94W TO 29N101W. PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. A 1029 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER GEORGIA NEAR 33N84W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N OF HOUSTON TEXAS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW ARE OVER MOST OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... EXCEPT OVER THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA AND THE SE GULF WHERE 20-25 KT WINDS ARE NOTED DUE TO A TIGHT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...THE BASE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 90W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF. EXPECT THE TEXAS COLD FRONT TO REACH THE COAST THIS EVENING WITH MORE SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM CENTRAL LOUISIANA TO S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS IN 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... 15-30 KT TRADEWINDS ARE OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST OF NORTH COLOMBIA. PATCHES OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS...ALONG THE COAST OF E HONDURAS...AND ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE OVER THE W CARIBBEAN S OF 19N W OF 82W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION ARE ALSO OVER JAMAICA. RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS SCATTERED SHOWERS S OF PUERTO RICO. THE SAME SHOWERS ARE OVER THE E CARIBBEAN S OF 17N E OF 70W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 13N-17N...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE ELSEWHERE. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY A SHEAR LINE IS JUST N OF THE ISLAND WITH SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS. SHOWERS ALONG THE N COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC ARE LIKELY LATER TODAY. EXPECT MOST FAIR WEATHER ELSEWHERE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 33N68W. A STATIONARY FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N43W TO 25N52W. A SHEAR LINE CONTINUES TO JUST N OF HISPANIOLA AT 20N71W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONT AND WITHIN 60 NM OF THE SHEAR LINE. SURFACE RIDGING IS OVER THE E ATLANTIC N OF 20N E OF 35W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC BETWEEN 50W-65W SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE E ATLANTIC NW OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS NEAR 20N30W. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE WITH THE FRONT AND SHEAR LINE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA