000 AXNT20 KNHC 011156 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST MON DEC 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 8N13W TO 6N21W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 6N21W TO 4N27W 5N36W 5N42W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 11W AND 16W...AND FROM 9N TO 10N BETWEEN 17W AND 19W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 1N TO 3N BETWEEN THE PRIME MERIDIAN AND 6W...FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 20W AND 24W...FROM 5N TO 7N BETWEEN 24W AND 30W...AND FROM 5N TO 9N BETWEEN 30W AND 34W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N33W 4N38W 6N41W 9N51W 11N56W 11N60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 93W/94W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 85W EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 86W/87W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 25N. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N74W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA...INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO... TO 26N96W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO... INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC OF SOUTHERN MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD...MORE AND MORE...FROM TEXAS INTO THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. GALE-FORCE WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC ON THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN SIDE OF MEXICO. PLEASE READ THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC...AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION...MIATWDEP/AXPZ20 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KMZG...KBBF... KGVX...KGHB...KEIR...KGRY...KATP...KMDJ...AND KIPN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 2 MILES AND FOG...AND 1 MILE OR LESS IN SOME CASES...ARE BEING OBSERVED IN THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS... EXCEPT IN WESLACO AND PORT ISABEL. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE FROM FALFURRIAS TO KINGSVILLE TO ALICE. THE VISIBILITY IS 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AT THE CORPUS CHRISTI NAVAL AIR STATION. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG IN GENERAL COVER THE MIDDLE TEXAS GULF COAST...EVEN REACHING VICTORIA. MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS BEING REPORTED IN GALVESTON TEXAS. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN AND AROUND THE HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS IN BEAUMONT-PORT ARTHUR. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE IN SOUTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE AROUND LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN SOUTHERN/COASTAL MISSISSIPPI. A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG IS IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI...IN GULF SHORES ALABAMA...AND IN PENSACOLA FLORIDA. SOME OF THE VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN LOW...1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING HOURS...FROM MISSISSIPPI TO THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. LOW LEVEL TO MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE FORT MYERS METROPOLITAN AREA AND NAPLES. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 27N53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 27N53W 24N63W 21N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 20N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...IS ALONG 24N54W 24N60W 21N65W...TO 18N68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND JAMAICA. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 73W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG FROM 13N TO 19N BETWEEN 80W AND LAND. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.63 IN CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N/9N BETWEEN 75W IN COLOMBIA...AND 84W IN SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 11N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 79W AND LAND. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 23N63W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT ENDS NEAR 27N53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 27N53W 24N63W 21N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 20N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...IS ALONG 24N54W 24N60W 21N65W...TO 18N68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 22N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 60W AND JAMAICA. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS FROM BARAHONA TO SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...OTHER FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND SCATTERED MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. LIGHT RAIN WAS BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO AT 01/1000 UTC. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER WERE REPORTED IN PUNTA CANA AT 01/0600 UTC AND AT 01/0900 UTC. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS AS THE CURRENT TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS/DISSIPATES. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE PERIOD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND IT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 85W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N55W TO 27N62W 23N63W...THROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE...INTO AND ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND INTO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA NEAR 8N70W. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A STATIONARY FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N48W AND 27N53W. A SHEAR AXIS CONTINUES ALONG 27N53W 24N63W 21N70W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE TO 20N75W. A SURFACE TROUGH...THAT WAS EVIDENT IN SCATTEROMETER DATA...IS ALONG 24N54W 24N60W 21N65W...TO 18N68W IN THE MONA PASSAGE. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 26N TO 31N BETWEEN 47W AND 51W. BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE ARE WITHIN 240 NM TO 300 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N48W 26N55W 20N60W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.06 IN BERMUDA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WAS FOLLOWING THE FIRST TROUGH APPEARS TO HAVE WEAKENED AND DISSIPATED ABOUT 240 NM TO 300 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FIRST TROUGH. COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 20N NORTHWARD...TO THE WEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N54W 26N62W 22N65W 20N67W. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 31N13W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 27N29W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 33W EASTWARD. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 19N31W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER TO 12N35W TO 6N40W. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N66W THROUGH 32N74W...INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N32W TO 27N41W AND 20N44W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT