000 AXNT20 KNHC 010602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST MON DEC 01 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0515 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF SIERRA LEONE NEAR 9N13W...TO 7N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 7N19W TO 6N25W 5N28W 5N40W AND 5N45W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N BETWEEN 11W AND 13W...FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 13W AND 15W...FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W...AND FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 31W AND 37W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 22W AND 24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 4N TO 12N BETWEEN 10W AND 22W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 3N30W 5N33W 4N37W 6N40W 8N43W 9N51W 10N53W 11N60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE IS APPARENT IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...EVERYWHERE IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO ALONG 94W/95W. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM 87W EASTWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 87W/88W FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO 24N. SCATTERED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N73W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 32N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N88W...TO 28N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO MEXICO. SURFACE ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGVX...KXIH... KGUL...KGBK...KGHB...KGRY...KATP...KIPN...KMIS...KBVE...AND KDLP. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... VISIBILITIES OF 1 TO 3 MILES AND FOG...AND 1 MILE OR LESS IN SOME CASES...ARE BEING OBSERVED IN TEXAS FROM FALFURRIAS TO ALICE TO KINGSVILLE. A LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILING IS BEING REPORTED IN...PORT LAVACA TEXAS...IN BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA...IN BILOXI MISSISSIPPI...IN PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI WITH A VISIBILITY OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG...AT THE MOBILE ALABAMA DOWNTOWN AIRPORT... AT THE NAVAL AIR STATION NEAR MILTON IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...AND AT MARATHON KEY. VISIBILITIES OF 1 MILE OR LESS AND FOG ARE BEING OBSERVED IN MARY ESTHER AND CRESTVIEW IN THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...A VISIBILITY OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND FOG AT THE TAMPA EXECUTIVE AIRPORT ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM PUERTO RICO TO THE COAST OF VENEZUELA NEAR 11N69W. THIS TROUGH MAY BE PART OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N57W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW COVERS THE REST OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...TO THE WEST OF THE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 14N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND 72W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE AREA...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 87W AND 88W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM 15N TO 18N FROM 80W WESTWARD TO LAND. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.63 IN CURACAO...AND 0.01 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 8N76W IN COLOMBIA...TO 9N80W IN PANAMA...BEYOND SOUTHERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG IS IN SOUTHEASTERN NICARAGUA AND COSTA RICA FROM 10N NORTHWARD. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG IN COLOMBIA 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 74W AND 77W...AND FROM 6N TO 7N BETWEEN 79W AND 80W IN THE COLOMBIA COASTAL WATERS. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 15N SOUTHWARD FROM 80W WESTWARD IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 25N64W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO 22N67W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES THROUGH 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 17N IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO 23N IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN BETWEEN 63W AND 75W. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS COVER THE SOUTHEASTERN COASTAL AREAS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA TO PUNTA CANA. PUNTA CANA WAS REPORTING A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING FOR THE LAST SEVERAL OBSERVATIONS BEFORE THE 01/0400 UTC REPORT. FEW CUMULONIMBUS CLOUDS...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS...AND A MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND A HIGH LEVEL CLOUD CEILING ARE BEING OBSERVED IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHWEST-TO-WEST WIND FLOW WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS AS THE CURRENT TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD AND WEAKENS/DISSIPATES. EXPECT WESTERLY WIND FLOW FOR THE REST OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS ACROSS HISPANIOLA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT CYCLONIC WIND FLOW WILL COVER HISPANIOLA FOR THE FIRST 24 HOURS TO 30 HOURS OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. WESTERLY WIND FLOW WILL COVER THE AREA FOR THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA. A RIDGE WILL COVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA. AN ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER WILL START THE PERIOD OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...AND IT WILL MOVE TO A POSITION THAT IS ABOUT 200 NM TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST OF BERMUDA BY THE END OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE AREA FROM CUBA NORTHWARD BETWEEN 75W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND 87W IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N57W TO 28N61W 25N64W...TO 22N67W...INTO THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS A 1018 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 33N45W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE TRIPLE POINT THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE 1018 MB LOW CENTER...THROUGH 32N42W TO 29N46W. THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY FROM 29N46W TO 23N60W AND TO 21N65W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT PASSES CONTINUES FROM 21N65W IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...TO THE NORTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA. A SURFACE TROUGH IS WITHIN 150 NM TO 210 NM TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE STATIONARY FRONT FROM 18N TO 25N. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 150 NM TO 250 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 32N46W 27N55W 20N61W. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 01/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES... MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.06 IN BERMUDA. A SECOND MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FOLLOWS THE FIRST ONE...PASSING THROUGH 32N63W TO 26N69W. THIS TROUGH IS SURROUNDED BY COMPARATIVELY DRIER AIR IN SUBSIDENCE. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 33N13W CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER...ACROSS THE CANARY ISLANDS...TO 23N23W. A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1005 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 35N9W TO 32N13W AND 31N17W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FROM 20N NORTHWARD FROM 33W EASTWARD. A WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N73W TO 32N78W...ACROSS NORTHEASTERN FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA BIG BEND... INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 30N88W...TO 28N94W IN THE NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...BEYOND THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS INTO MEXICO. AN EASTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N34W TO 25N41W AND 16N43W. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT