000 AXNT20 KNHC 302345 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 2315 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 7N36W TO 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM 4N-9N E OF 25W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA AND FROM 7N-9N BETWEEN 31W-37W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1030 MB HIGH NW OF BERMUDA ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA BETWEEN THE FLORIDA KEYS AND N CUBA LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH E TEXAS AND WILL STALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST MON NIGHT THEN LIFT N TUE. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE W/CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS S TO OVER THE N CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A STATIONARY FRONT IN THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE N PORTION OF HISPANIOLA. LINGERING MOISTURE COUPLED WITH THE FRESH TO STRONG EASTERLY TRADE WINDS ARE GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 15N- 19N W OF 81W AND FROM 17N-19N BETWEEN 75W-78W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE CARIBBEAN S OF 15N WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO STRONG TRADE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH TUE. HISPANIOLA... THE STATIONARY FRONT OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC EXTENDS A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT ALONG THE N COAST OF THE ISLAND W OF 70W TO THE NW TIP OF HAITI WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 45 NM S OF THE FRONT. THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL FURTHER WEAKEN TONIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT MAINLY FOR THE N PORTION OF THE ISLAND WITH SKIES CLEARING MON AND TUE. HOWEVER...WITH DAYTIME HEATING AFTERNOON FAST MOVING SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE NW ATLC WITH A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERING THE REMAINDER OF THE W ATLC INTO THE CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT N OF THE AREA WITH A STATIONARY FRONT ENTERING THE AREA NEAR 32N43W ALONG 27N51W TO 22N63W WHERE IT DISSIPATES TO ALONG THE THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA NEAR 70W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E OF THE FRONT E OF 63W AND WITHIN 200 NM OF W OF THE ENTIRE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE W ATLC W OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1030 MB HIGH ABOUT 225 NM NW BERMUDA AND WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1025 MB HIGH OVER THE AZORES. W ATLC FRONT WILL TRANSITION TO A SHEAR LINE AND SLOWLY WEAKEN THROUGH THE FIRST OF THE WEEK. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH MON EXPANDING NORTHWARD THROUGH TUE. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW