000 AXNT20 KNHC 301747 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST SUN NOV 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 8N13W TO 6N21W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES TO 7N35W TO THE COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 4N51W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS ALONG THE COAST OF WEST AFRICA FROM 5N-10N BETWEEN 10W-24W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 29W-34W...AND FROM 6N- 10N BETWEEN 46W-54W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N70W. A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDS SW FROM THE HIGH TO N OF HOUSTON TEXAS PRODUCING 10-15 KT E TO SE RETURN FLOW OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER IS OVER THE GULF. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER THE EASTERN GULF WITH AXIS ALONG 85W N OF 23N. STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF ENHANCING THE FAIR WEATHER. EXPECT LITTLE CHANGE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. CARIBBEAN SEA... A SHEAR LINE IS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA FROM NW HAITI AT 20N74W TO NE NICARAGUA AT 15N83W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE OVER THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA...E CUBA...JAMAICA...THE GULF OF HONDURAS...HONDURAS...AND N NICARAGUA. 20-25 KT NE WINDS ARE N OF THE SHEAR LINE WITH WEAKER TRADEWINDS S OF THE SHEAR LINE. FURTHER S... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND PANAMA FROM 8N-11N BETWEEN 81W-84W. ELSEWHERE... SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE N OF PUERTO RICO AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS N OF 19N BETWEEN 60W-67W. SIMILAR SHOWERS ARE OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE COAST OF VENEZUELA FROM 9N-12N BETWEEN 60W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...MOSTLY ZONAL FLOW IS OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA WITH UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BETWEEN 17N-20N...AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN 12N-17N. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND TRADEWINDS TO PREVAIL ACROSS THE BASIN. FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN 24 HOURS ALONG THE COAST OF N COLOMBIA. HISPANIOLA... PRESENTLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ALONG THE N COAST OF HISPANIOLA DUE TO A DISSIPATING QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THIS FRONT TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1030 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR 34N70W. A COLD FRONT IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC FROM 31N44W TO 25N54W. A STATIONARY FRONT CONTINUES TO 21N65W DISSIPATING TO NW HAITI AT 20N74W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 23N-26N BETWEEN 58W-65W. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE FRONTS. A LARGE 1026 MB HIGH IS CENTERED OVER THE AZORES NEAR 38N29W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL SYSTEM. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 18N33W. EXPECT OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS FOR THE FRONTS TO BECOME QUASI- STATIONARY WITH CONTINUED CONVECTION AND SHOWERS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ FORMOSA