000 AXNT20 KNHC 301133 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 30 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1115 UTC. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLANTIC NEAR 9N14W TO 6N23W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N38W TO 6N54W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 6N- 11N BETWEEN 13W-24W AND FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 34W-49W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N73W. ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OF 10-15 KT PREVAILS ACROSS THE BASIN AND ISOLATED CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS THE FLORIDA STRAITS INTO THE SE GULF. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL PERSIST BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH E TEXAS AND THEN STALL ALONG THE TEXAS COAST. CARIBBEAN SEA... A BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA TO THE W ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT AND A SHEAR LINE THAT IS ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN NEAR 19N73W TO THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR 15N83W. ISOLATED CONVECTION IS WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER. TRADE WINDS OF 10-15 KT ARE PREVAILING ACROSS THE BASIN. OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE AND A HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD N OF THE AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN THROUGH MONDAY. HISPANIOLA... A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS ACROSS HAITI FROM 20N71W TO 18N74W ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 50 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. FAIR WEATHER PREVAILS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND. EXPECT FOR THE SHEAR LINE TO DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SCATTERED CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE MAINLY OVER HAITI AND THE N PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC THROUGH MONDAY. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1028 MB SURFACE HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC NEAR 34N73W SUPPORTING FAIR WEATHER N OF 24N W OF 58W. TO THE E... AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDS FROM A 1015 MB LOW CENTERED NEAR 34N47W. THIS FRONT EXTENDS FROM THAT POINT TO 22N64W ENHANCING CONVECTION WITHIN 175 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF IT. A SHEAR LINE EXTENDS FROM 22N64W INTO THE CARIBBEAN. SCATTERED LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION IS PRESENT WITHIN 175 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. A SURFACE TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM 22N58W TO 19N66W ENHANCING CONVECTION ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS N OF PUERTO RICO FROM 19N-23N BETWEEN 54W-63W. THE E ATLANTIC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED BY A 1023 MB HIGH LOCATED AT ABOUT 180 NM SW OF THE AZORES. LOOKING AHEAD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...EXPECT FOR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE W ATLANTIC TO SLOWLY DISSIPATE AND THE W ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE WILL EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ ERA