000
AXNT20 KNHC 292351
TWDAT 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 PM EST SAT NOV 29 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL  
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF 
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE 
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE 
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL 
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2315 UTC.

...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH...                                
 
THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL 
ATLC NEAR 9N13W TO 7N19W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES 
ALONG 6N40W TO 8N58W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM S OF ITCZ BETWEEN 38N-43W. SCATTERED 
THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 5N-8N E OF 22W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. 

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...                                               
AN UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THE GULF OF MEXICO THIS EVENING WITH A 
SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR WILMINGTON 
NORTH CAROLINA ACROSS NE FLORIDA TO BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. ISOLATED 
LOW LEVEL SHOWERS ARE MOVING THROUGH THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA 
BETWEEN THE LOWER FLORIDA KEYS AND CUBA. THE RETURN FLOW IS 
GIVING THE AREA WITHIN 60 NM ALONG THE COAST OF MEXICO BETWEEN 
VERACRUZ AND THE TEXAS BORDER POSSIBLE ISOLATED SHOWERS LEAVING 
THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF WITH CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. SURFACE 
RIDGE WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY MON BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD 
AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH E TEXAS AND WILL STALL 
ALONG THE TEXAS COAST BY MON NIGHT. 
 
CARIBBEAN SEA...                                                
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER THE 
W ATLC INCLUDING THE EXTREME N CARIBBEAN. THIS UPPER TROUGH 
SUPPORTS A COLD FRONT IN THE W ATLC WITH A STATIONARY FRONT 
ENTERING THE CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W 
TO OVER JAMAICA NEAR 18N78W WHERE IT BEGINS TO DISSIPATE TO THE 
NE COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 14N84W. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND 
POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF EITHER SIDE 
OF THE FRONT. STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY STABLE AIR ALOFT COVERS 
THE E CARIBBEAN E OF THE FRONT WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE 
FRONT WILL DISSIPATE BY SUN. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD N OF THE 
AREA SUPPORTING FRESH TO NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS OVER THE CENTRAL 
CARIBBEAN SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON.
                                       
HISPANIOLA...                                                   
A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE WITH 
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 75 
NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONT WHICH INCLUDES PORTIONS OF HAITI. 
THE REMAINDER OF THE ISLAND IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING. 
THIS FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BY SUN. SCATTERED SHOWERS 
AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUN 
NIGHT MAINLY FOR HAITI AND THE N PORTION OF THE DOMINICAN 
REPUBLIC. 
                     
ATLANTIC OCEAN...                                                
A BROAD UPPER TROUGH COVERS THE W AND CENTRAL ATLC SUPPORTING A 
COLD FRONT ENTERS THE REGION NEAR 32N52W AND EXTENDS ALONG 
25N61W TO 21N71W WHERE IT BECOMES A STATIONARY FRONT INTO THE 
CARIBBEAN THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE NEAR 20N74W. SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 120 NM E 
OF THE FRONT N OF 25N AND WITHIN 60 NM OF EITHER SIDE OF THE 
REMAINDER OF THE FRONT. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING IN THE WAKE 
OF THE ABOVE FRONT ANCHORED BY A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR WILMINGTON 
NORTH CAROLINA AND WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING SW INTO THE GULF 
OF MEXICO. THE E ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE ANCHORED 
BY A 1022 MB HIGH ABOUT 200 NM SW OF THE AZORES. W ATLC FRONT 
WILL SLOWLY DISSIPATE THROUGH SUN. W ATLC SURFACE RIDGE WILL 
EXPAND EASTWARD TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL ATLC THROUGH MON. 
                                        
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT 
HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE

$$
PAW