000 AXNT20 KNHC 251741 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE SW GULF OF MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON AT 25/1800 UTC OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO. THESE WINDS WILL EXPAND OFF THE COAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO AND WITHIN 60 NM ALONG PORTIONS OF THE FRONT BY 26/0000 UTC AND BE BELOW GALE FORCE BY EARLY WED MORNING. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 14 FT DURING THIS GALE EVENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...A GALE WARNING FOR THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A GALE WARNING GOES INTO EFFECT FOR THE FAR NW ATLC AT 26/1200 UTC. THE GULF OF MEXICO FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE W ATLC WITH GALE FORCE WINDS WITHIN 60 NM E OF THE FRONT N OF 31N. THESE WINDS WILL SHIFT NE RAPIDLY OUT OF THE AREA. SEAS WILL BUILD UP TO 12 FT DURING THIS GALE EVENT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDS ACROSS AFRICA INTO THE E TROPICAL ATLC NEAR 9N14W TO 8N17W WHERE THE ITCZ BEGINS AND CONTINUES ALONG 8N26W 9N36W TO SOUTH AMERICA NEAR 6N55W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE MONSOON TROUGH E OF 16W TO INLAND OVER AFRICA. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION DOT THE AREA WITHIN 200 NM OF THE ITCZ BETWEEN 19W-48W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... AN UPPER TROUGH IS SWEEPING THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO TEXAS SUPPORTING A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT ENTERS THE GULF OF MEXICO ACROSS NE FLORIDA NEAR CEDAR KEY TO A NEWLY DEVELOPED 1012 MB LOW NEAR 27N87W CONTINUING ALONG 22N94W THEN S INTO MEXICO NEAR COATZACOALCOS THEN CONTINUES AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER MEXICO. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150 NM SE OF THE FRONT N OF 25N WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN 90 NM E OF THE FRONT BETWEEN 91W AND 94W. SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 180 NM W OF THE FRONT. AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA COVERS THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE IS BUILDING SE OVER THE GULF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ANCHORED BY A SERIES OF HIGHS INLAND OVER THE CENTRAL PLAIN STATES. COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS COVER THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF W OF THE FRONT LEAVING THE SE GULF UNDER FAIR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE SE EXITING THE GULF ON WED AS THE LOW MOVES RAPIDLY MOVES NE OUT OF THE GULF TONIGHT AND OFF THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA BY EARLY WED. THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE W. CARIBBEAN SEA... AN UPPER RIDGE IS ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N76W COVERING THE MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE E/CENTRAL ATLC COVERS THE FAR E CARIBBEAN E OF 65W. STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN EXCEPT OVER THE FAR NW CARIBBEAN WHERE DIFFLUENT FLOW COULD GENERATE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY N OF 19N W OF 80W. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ANOTHER EXCEPTION. IT EXTENDS FROM COLOMBIA NEAR 10N74W TO ACROSS COSTA RICA/NICARAGUA BORDER INTO THE E PACIFIC NEAR 11N85W. SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE S OF THE MONSOON TROUGH AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE MONSOON TROUGH W OF 79W. THIS IS LEAVING THE REMAINDER OF THE CARIBBEAN UNDER CLEAR SKIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE GULF OF MEXICO COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN EARLY WED WITH STRONG N WINDS AND BUILDING SEAS IN ITS WAKE. HISPANIOLA... AN UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN BAHAMAS AND CUBA IS GIVING THE ISLANDS N FLOW ALOFT WITH STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY STABLE AIR COVERING THE AREA. THIS IS KEEPING SHOWERS TO POSSIBLE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS USHERED IN ON THE EASTERLY TRADE WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK BEFORE THE FRONT REACHES THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AT THE END OF THE WEEK INCREASING MOISTURE AND THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE WEEKEND. ATLANTIC OCEAN... THE UPPER RIDGE ANCHORED BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS AND CUBA NEAR 22N76W COVERS THE W ATLC AND IS PROVIDING DIFFLUNCE ALOFT OVER FLORIDA AND THE FAR W ATLC. A COLD FRONT IS INLAND OVER THE E CONUS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A SURFACE TROUGH PRECEDING IT EXTENDING FROM OVER NE FLORIDA NE ACROSS JACKSONVILLE TO BEYOND 32N79W. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/ SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 150/180 NM E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH ENHANCED BY THE UPPER DIFFLUENCE. AN UPPER TROUGH IN THE E/CENTRAL ATLC THAT EXTENDS S OVER THE FAR E CARIBBEAN IS SUPPORTING A LINGERING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM 31N35W ALONG 27N45W 20N48W TO 17N52W AND IS GENERATING SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM 16N-27N BETWEEN 42W-49W. THE REMAINDER OF THE ATLC IS DOMINATED BY A SURFACE RIDGE WITH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING ACROSS BERMUDA TO CENTRAL FLORIDA AND A SECOND SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDING FROM A 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N27W TO OVER AFRICA NEAR CENTRAL WESTERN SAHARA. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT E AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL ENTER THE THE W ATLC TONIGHT WITH A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE FRONT WILL REACH FROM 32N68W TO CENTRAL CUBA EARLY THU AND JUST E OF BERMUDA TO E CUBA BY FRI. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ PAW