000 AXNT20 KNHC 250602 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 105 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...A GALE WARNING FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO... THE 24-HOUR FORECAST CONSISTS OF A STATIONARY FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM 29N83W TO 26N88W...AND THEN CONTINUE AS A COLD FRONT FROM 26N88W TO 18.5N93W. EXPECT GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS AND SEA HEIGHTS FROM 10 TO 14 FEET FROM 22N TO 27N WITHIN 120 NM TO THE WEST OF THE FRONT. PLEASE READ THE HIGH SEAS FORECAST...MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC...FOR MORE DETAILS. GALE-FORCE NORTHWEST-TO-NORTH WINDS ALSO ARE FORECAST IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE SOUTH OF 20.5N TO THE WEST OF 95W. ELSEWHERE W OF FRONT TO LINE FROM 30N91W TO 26N97W N TO NE WINDS 20 TO 30 KT. SEA HEIGHTS FROM 8 TO 11 FEET...EXCEPT FROM 10 FEET TO 16 FEET TO THE SOUTH OF 20.5N TO THE WEST OF 95W. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL SECTIONS OF GUINEA NEAR 10N15W TO 9N19W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM 9N19W TO 8N23W 8N31W AND 6N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED STRONG FROM 6N TO 10N BETWEEN 19W AND 27W...FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 29W AND 32W...AND FROM 4N TO 6N BETWEEN 42W AND 46W. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE AND ISOLATED STRONG ELSEWHERE TO THE SOUTH OF THE LINE FROM 14N17W TO 12N30W 10N45W 8N52W 8N59W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A DEEP LAYER TROUGH IS DIGGING SOUTHWARD AS IT CONTINUES MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL SECTIONS OF THE U.S.A. EASTWARD. THE TROUGH PASSES THROUGH MISSOURI TO TEXAS AND INTO NORTHERN MEXICO. THE TROUGH SUPPORTS THE CURRENT COLD FRONT THAT PASSES THROUGH THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...INTO THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO...TO THE MEXICO COAST NEAR 21N IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD INTO MEXICO...AND IT ENDS UP NEAR 28N103W. RAINSHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE LINE THAT PASSES THROUGH 31N82W TO 20N97W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N68W 27N74W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 24N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE TO THE NORTH OF 27N TO THE WEST OF 88W... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING REPORTED AT...KGRY...KATP... KEIR...KIPN...AND KIKT. MIDDLE LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS COVER THE REST OF THE AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE IN THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE NEAR MARY ESTHER/VALPARAISO/DESTIN. RAINSHOWERS WITH THUNDER ARE BEING REPORTED IN THE PANAMA CITY AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN FLORIDA...IN MARIANNA AND PERRY...AND IN BROOKSVILLE. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND VISIBILITIES OF 3 MILES OR LESS AND AREAS OF PATCHY FOG ARE ALONG THE FLORIDA WEST COAST...IN THE TAMPA/ST. PETERSBURG AREA. LOW LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN COVER FLORIDA FROM SARASOTA TO NAPLES...AND IN MARATHON KEY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 32N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 90W...INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N85W IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...TO 19N83W TO 24N82W TO 27N81W...JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOGEE. THE 24-HOUR RAINFALL TOTAL IN INCHES FOR THE PERIOD ENDING AT 25/0000 UTC...ACCORDING TO THE PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...IS 0.16 IN GUADELOUPE. THE MONSOON TROUGH IS ALONG 9N72W IN NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA... TO 10N80W JUST OFF THE COAST OF PANAMA...BEYOND 11N86W IN NORTHWESTERN COSTA RICA...INTO THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG IN THE COASTAL PLAINS FROM COLOMBIA AT 3N TO ITS BORDER WITH PANAMA... FROM 7N TO 9N BETWEEN 76W AND 79W...ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST OF PANAMA FROM 7N TO 8N BETWEEN 81W AND 82W...AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA FROM 9N TO 10N WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 80W. ...HISPANIOLA... MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL NORTH-TO-NORTHEAST WIND FLOW IS PASSING ON TOP OF HISPANIOLA. A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS ALONG 28N76W TO 22N76W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION... SCATTERED STRONG FROM 17N TO 18N BETWEEN 77W AND 78W ALONG THE SOUTHERN COASTAL SECTIONS OF JAMAICA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 15N85W IN EASTERN SECTIONS OF HAITI...TO 19N83W TO 24N82W TO 27N81W...JUST TO THE WEST OF LAKE OKEECHOGEE. CLOUD CONDITIONS AND PREVAILING WEATHER FOR THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS FROM SANTO DOMINGO TO LA ROMANA AND TO PUNTA CANA. SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE BEING OBSERVED IN SANTIAGO. FEW LOW LEVEL CLOUDS ARE IN PUERTO PLATA. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 250 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS THE CURRENT NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER REMAINS NEAR CUBA. NORTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW...WITH A TROUGH THAT APPROACHES FROM THE EAST...APPEARS DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO OF THE 48-HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 500 MB SHOWS THAT NORTHEAST-TO-EAST WIND WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...WITH NORTHEAST-TO- SOUTHWEST ORIENTED ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CUBA AND JAMAICA RIDGE. THE GFS MODEL FORECAST FOR 700 MB SHOWS THAT EASTERLY WIND FLOW WILL REACH HISPANIOLA...AS HISPANIOLA WILL BE ON THE SOUTHERN SIDE OF AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-GREATER ANTILLES RIDGE. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS BETWEEN JAMAICA AND SOUTHEASTERN CUBA. ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW COVERS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND THE CARIBBEAN SEA FROM 32N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 60W AND THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND 90W... INCLUDING IN THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE GULF OF MEXICO. A CENTRAL MIDDLE LEVEL TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES THROUGH 32N42W TO 22N46W TO 13N51W...AND 9N54W. A DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT IS ALONG 32N33W TO 28N42W. A SURFACE TROUGH CONTINUES FROM 28N42W TO 26N46W AND 21N49W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM TO 180 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 33N32W 31N38W 27N42W 20N48W 17N47W. A SURFACE RIDGE PASSES THROUGH 32N60W TO 29N68W 27N74W...TO ANDROS ISLAND IN THE BAHAMAS...ACROSS FLORIDA...TO 24N90W IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO. A SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM A 1026 MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 32N23W...TO THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ MT