000 AXNT20 KNHC 231232 TWDAT TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 705 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GALE FORCE WINDS ARE OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W. GALE WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT DISSIPATE INLAND NORTHERN FLORIDA. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ENTER THE NW BASIN TONIGHT...WHICH MAY DEVELOP GALE FORCE WINDS WEST OF THE FRONT IN THE SW GULF. SEE LATEST NHC HIGH SEAS FORECAST UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS. ...THE ITCZ/THE MONSOON TROUGH... THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH COASTAL WEST AFRICA NEAR 9N13W TO 8N15W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM THAT POINT TO 6N27W TO 5N44W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION AND ISOLATED TSTMS ARE FROM 2N-10N EAST OF 38W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM THE EASTERN CONUS TO THE W ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A BROAD SURFACE ANTICYCLONE ANCHORED BY A 1031 MB HIGH NEAR 34N64W...WHICH EXTENDS A RIDGE SW ACROSS FLORIDA. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT BEING GENERATED BY A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE W-NW GULF ALONG WITH INFLOW OF MOIST AIR FROM THE SW N ATLC AND THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS OVER NE FLORIDA AND ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NE GULF N OF 26N E OF 89W. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A WARM FRONT MOVING ALONG CENTRAL FLORIDA TO THE NE GULF SUPPORTS SE WIND FLOW OF 20- 25 KT N OF 27N E OF 88W. HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS ARE BEING ANALYZED OVER THE NW GULF N OF 25N W OF 90W ASSOCIATED WITH A SQUALL LINE ALONG 30N92W TO 26N94W AND THE TAIL OF A STATIONARY FRONT ALONG 29N95W TO 29N93W. A DIFFLUENT ENVIRONMENT ALOFT EAST OF THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH ALONG WITH MOIST AIR BEING ADVECTED FROM THE CARIBBEAN BY SE WIND FLOW OF 20 KT FUELS THE CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THESE FEATURES. GALE FORCE WINDS ARE IN THE VICINITY OF THE SQUALL LINE...SEE SPECIAL FEATURES ABOVE. FAIR WEATHER DOMINATES ELSEWHERE. ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF WATERS THROUGH SUN NIGHT/MON MORNING ASSOCIATED WITH THE SQUALL LINE AND A COLD FRONT TO EMERGE FROM TEXAS LATER TODAY. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... PATCHES OF SHALLOW MOISTURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA...HOWEVER DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THIS REGION HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION. A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE REMAINDER BASIN ALONG WITH A BROAD MOIST AIRMASS MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER HISPANIOLA SOUTHERN ADJACENT WATERS N OF 14N. FAIR WEATHER IS ELSEWHERE. TRADES OF 20 KT ARE EAST OF 80W WHILE A MORE RELAXED PRESSURE GRADIENT PROVIDES LIGHTER WINDS ON THE NW CARIBBEAN. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT TWO OR THREE DAYS. ...HISPANIOLA... A BROAD AND MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN WATERS THAT ALONG WITH LIFTING SUPPORTED BY A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ENHANCE SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 14N BETWEEN 65W-72W. THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING AS THE AIRMASS CONTINUES TO DRIFT WESTWARD. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A BROAD MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NW ATLC CONTINUES TO SUPPORT A COLD FRONT ALONG 30N43W SW TO 25N57W WHERE IT TRANSITIONS TO A STATIONARY FRONT TO THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS AND THEN INTO A WARMN FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE WITHIN 160 NM N OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY...SIMILAR SHOWER ACTIVITY IS WITHIN 120 NM AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE WITHIN 140 NM NORTH AND EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS BEING ENHANCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE E-NE CARIBBEAN SEA. ON THE FAR NE ATLC BASIN...A 1004 MB LOW IS NE OF THE CANARY ISLANDS SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS N OF 28N E OF 12W. SURFACE RIDGING DOMINATES ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE BASIN N OF 20N. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ON THE SW N ATLC AND THE CENTRAL BASIN IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE OVER THE EASTERN BASIN BY TUESDAY NIGHT. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT HTTP://WWW.HURRICANES.GOV/MARINE $$ NR